03-03-2023, 12:59 PM
It is such a weird situation we find ourselves in.
1) The major FA's we have (the guys who project to start when we are healthy) are all at spots with low positional value: safery (two), linebacker, and tight-end. We drafted Bates' replacement last year (Dax Hill) and could easily get a high end prospect at the other spots where we are picking (Rds 1-2) and save some cap cash. Yes, I know Apple is a starter, but is he when Chido returns? Regardless, we'll get to him later. Cap wise, this makes the most sense. Save the big $$ deals for spots that have higher positional value (QB, OT, DE, CB, WR).
2) Furthermore, the guy we could cut to save the most $$ this year, Mixon, is also at a low value spot. Where quality, productive starters are often found day 2 or day 3.
3) Cap-wise, some combination of these 2 moves seems like a no-brainer. Save the cash. Spend your high picks on top prospects at those spots (TE, LB, S, RB). Use your mid-round picks and cash savings in FA to bolster depth at other spots (DE, CB, OT, WR) and move on.
4) But that is probably gonna weaken a super bowl caliber team in the short term. And it makes us draft more for a particular position rather than value. And it could leave us dangerously thin at some other spots with injury concerns (RT, CB). If Chido is iffy & Apple and Flowers walk, we have an issue at CB. And it does nothing to address the looning issues at OT.
5) If we draft to replace guys at TE, S, LB, and RB, it means foregoing help at high value soots like OT, CB, and in the pass rush. Tough to find immediate Day 3 help there. Almost impossible. If we hold what we have (to the extent possible) it allows us to take guys in the draft early who can help us NOW.
6) The FO is not in total control of this situation. To what extent Burrow, Higgins, Bates, Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, Perine, and Wilson are willing to take a bit less to stay, and what the market is for them, will make some decisions for us.
Me, I tend to be in the camp of holding what we have to the extent possible. And using the draft to get the BPA who can help us now (likely DL, TE, or CB, maybe OL). If I have to lose guys, I want to lose guys at positions it is easiest to replace with mid to late round picks. RB (Mixon) and LB (Pratt) top that list. TE & S next.
And I want to kick the can down the road as far as possible on cap casualties. I'd love to be drafting for potential cuts down the road like we did with Hill last year, but I'd rather get a guy who helps get us over the top this year.
1st priority: Burrow extension
2nd priority: Bell & Hurst (cupboard can't be bare at TE & S)
3rd priority: Pratt (I call Wagner if he walks)
4th priority: Perine (insurance for if I cut Mixon)
5th priority: Apple (for backup money & to free the draft)
I let Bates walk. I would totally cut Mixon in 3 scenarios, but Perine has to be locked up in all of them:
1) It lets us keep one of our top FAa (Bell, Pratt, Hurst, even Bates)
2) It lets us replace a top FA we lose (Wagner for Pratt)
3) It lets us sign a quality FA at a high value spot (RT, DE, CB)
1) The major FA's we have (the guys who project to start when we are healthy) are all at spots with low positional value: safery (two), linebacker, and tight-end. We drafted Bates' replacement last year (Dax Hill) and could easily get a high end prospect at the other spots where we are picking (Rds 1-2) and save some cap cash. Yes, I know Apple is a starter, but is he when Chido returns? Regardless, we'll get to him later. Cap wise, this makes the most sense. Save the big $$ deals for spots that have higher positional value (QB, OT, DE, CB, WR).
2) Furthermore, the guy we could cut to save the most $$ this year, Mixon, is also at a low value spot. Where quality, productive starters are often found day 2 or day 3.
3) Cap-wise, some combination of these 2 moves seems like a no-brainer. Save the cash. Spend your high picks on top prospects at those spots (TE, LB, S, RB). Use your mid-round picks and cash savings in FA to bolster depth at other spots (DE, CB, OT, WR) and move on.
4) But that is probably gonna weaken a super bowl caliber team in the short term. And it makes us draft more for a particular position rather than value. And it could leave us dangerously thin at some other spots with injury concerns (RT, CB). If Chido is iffy & Apple and Flowers walk, we have an issue at CB. And it does nothing to address the looning issues at OT.
5) If we draft to replace guys at TE, S, LB, and RB, it means foregoing help at high value soots like OT, CB, and in the pass rush. Tough to find immediate Day 3 help there. Almost impossible. If we hold what we have (to the extent possible) it allows us to take guys in the draft early who can help us NOW.
6) The FO is not in total control of this situation. To what extent Burrow, Higgins, Bates, Bell, Pratt, Hurst, Apple, Perine, and Wilson are willing to take a bit less to stay, and what the market is for them, will make some decisions for us.
Me, I tend to be in the camp of holding what we have to the extent possible. And using the draft to get the BPA who can help us now (likely DL, TE, or CB, maybe OL). If I have to lose guys, I want to lose guys at positions it is easiest to replace with mid to late round picks. RB (Mixon) and LB (Pratt) top that list. TE & S next.
And I want to kick the can down the road as far as possible on cap casualties. I'd love to be drafting for potential cuts down the road like we did with Hill last year, but I'd rather get a guy who helps get us over the top this year.
1st priority: Burrow extension
2nd priority: Bell & Hurst (cupboard can't be bare at TE & S)
3rd priority: Pratt (I call Wagner if he walks)
4th priority: Perine (insurance for if I cut Mixon)
5th priority: Apple (for backup money & to free the draft)
I let Bates walk. I would totally cut Mixon in 3 scenarios, but Perine has to be locked up in all of them:
1) It lets us keep one of our top FAa (Bell, Pratt, Hurst, even Bates)
2) It lets us replace a top FA we lose (Wagner for Pratt)
3) It lets us sign a quality FA at a high value spot (RT, DE, CB)
