The Fundamental Question going forward

[THE PISTONS]

(04-03-2023, 06:30 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Those three will be paid. i am just not sure I agree with your assumption on how much they will be paid. I would estimate something like this for all 3: Right now, in 2023 they account for 24 million in cap hits already.

2023 - Burrow extended for 10 years at 450 million with 70% or 315 million guaranteed. Deal includes a 200 million signing bonus which they will pro rate over the additional 10 years, years 2024 through 2033. So, in 2023 cap hit does not change for Burrow. So they will have paid 200 million +11.5 salary for 2023 or 211.500 of the guarantee in 2023.
2024 - 20 million to signing bonus (yearly cap hit for 10 years) + 10 million i base salary = 30 million cap hit
2025 - 20 million to signing bonus + 10 million to salary for 30 million cap hit 
Guarantees paid in 1st 3 years = 231,500 of the 315,000 million
2026- 18 million in salary + 20 million bonus = 38 million cap hit
2027 - 20 million in salary + 20 million cap hit = 40 million
2028 - 25 million in salary + 25 million cap hit = 45 million
After 2029 majority of guarantee is paid off
2029 - 20 million bonus cap + 35 million in salary = 55 million
2030 - 20 million bonus cap + 35 million in salary = 55 million


2031 - 20 million in bonus signing cap + 48 million = 68 million
2032 - 20 million signing bonus + 48million = 68million

This does assumes Joe agrees to on average 45 million a year versus 50 million or higher. But, as you can see, the key is the guaranteed money and the amount of any signing bonus. The signing bonus can be spread over the life (number of years) of the contract which reduces the early year cap hits, but still gives team flexibility in later years to convert and lower the cap to create cap space.


Some fans believe if I guy is pad 450 million over 10 years, then the cap hit is 45 million a year for 10 years. It can be, but huge contracts are not structured this way, the cap hit are smaller in the earlier years and then heavier in the layer years.


The same can be done for Chase and Higgins, we have Chase locked up for a total of five years, so 3 more years. We have Higgins locked up through 2024. My point is we have time to sign them to extensions, the key is does the team have the cash to pay big upfront bonuses to help manage the cap easier.

Even Burrow is locked into us until after the 2024 season, they want to extend him to get him locked in at 2023 prices versus 2025 prices, same for Higgins and Chase.

That's a nice post that shows the cap hits.