04-18-2023, 07:23 PM
Interesting news today, the Reds extended Hunter Greene through the end of the 2028 season with a 6 year 53M dollar extension.
The value is good, with Hunter Greene expected to be much better than a typical 10M AAV pitcher like a 36 year old Corey Kluber (10 M) or Michael Lorenzen. (8.5 M)
The thing I don't understand is that this extension doesn't start next year, or once he enters arbitration. It starts RIGHT NOW. Meaning he just got an 8 million dollar raise for this year and next year, as he was currently making just 730,000 dollars this year. He'd likely make something very similar next year and then in 2025 he'd enter arbitration where he'd start getting paid based on his production for 3 years. Those salaries likely would have started somewhere around 5M in arb 1, going up to maybe 11 to 15 million in arb 3, depending on how well he was producing.
For a comparison, Shane Bieber is a career 3.16 ERA pitcher who just entered his second year of arbitration. He made 545k, 559k and 623k in his 3 pre-arb years, 6 million in arb 1 and is now making 10 million in arb 2 coming off of a 3.6 WAR, 2.88 ERA, 13-8, 200 IP, 1.04 WHIP season.
Hunter Greene would need to be all star/Cy Young level to match Bieber's results, but will end up making about 44 million over his pre-arb 2 through arb 3 seasons, whereas Bieber will have only made 17.7 million over 5 seasons from pre-arb 1 to arb 2.
And, in exchange for this huge up front payment and raise in the previously assumed cost controlled years of pre-arbitration, Greene is giving the Reds 1 additional year of control and a 21 million dollar option in 2029 that has a 2 million dollar buy out.
Gotta say...The Reds seem to have gotten fleeced on this one haha...They gave up a lot of money up front and only got 1 year of additional control (and 1 expensive option year) in exchange.
Hunter Greene is going to have to be an annual all star and Cy Young candidate to justify this contract extension, imo.
The value is good, with Hunter Greene expected to be much better than a typical 10M AAV pitcher like a 36 year old Corey Kluber (10 M) or Michael Lorenzen. (8.5 M)
The thing I don't understand is that this extension doesn't start next year, or once he enters arbitration. It starts RIGHT NOW. Meaning he just got an 8 million dollar raise for this year and next year, as he was currently making just 730,000 dollars this year. He'd likely make something very similar next year and then in 2025 he'd enter arbitration where he'd start getting paid based on his production for 3 years. Those salaries likely would have started somewhere around 5M in arb 1, going up to maybe 11 to 15 million in arb 3, depending on how well he was producing.
For a comparison, Shane Bieber is a career 3.16 ERA pitcher who just entered his second year of arbitration. He made 545k, 559k and 623k in his 3 pre-arb years, 6 million in arb 1 and is now making 10 million in arb 2 coming off of a 3.6 WAR, 2.88 ERA, 13-8, 200 IP, 1.04 WHIP season.
Hunter Greene would need to be all star/Cy Young level to match Bieber's results, but will end up making about 44 million over his pre-arb 2 through arb 3 seasons, whereas Bieber will have only made 17.7 million over 5 seasons from pre-arb 1 to arb 2.
And, in exchange for this huge up front payment and raise in the previously assumed cost controlled years of pre-arbitration, Greene is giving the Reds 1 additional year of control and a 21 million dollar option in 2029 that has a 2 million dollar buy out.
Gotta say...The Reds seem to have gotten fleeced on this one haha...They gave up a lot of money up front and only got 1 year of additional control (and 1 expensive option year) in exchange.
Hunter Greene is going to have to be an annual all star and Cy Young candidate to justify this contract extension, imo.
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
