04-21-2023, 06:49 PM
Greetings all! Under 1 week until Round 1.
With us drafting at #28, I tried to put the players into tiers.
Tier 1: Players I'd love but think there is no way they fall to us.
Tier 2: Players I'd love to take at #28 that MIGHT be there.
Tier 3: Players who are viable late 1st Rd picks, but I don't love. Trade down territory.
The Tiers, initially:
Tier 1: 14
QB (4): Young, Stroud, Richardson, Levis.
DE/Edge (3): Anderson, Wilson, N. Smith
DT/NT (1): Carter
CB (3): Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Porter
OT (3): Skoronski, Johnson, B. Jones
Obviously, we have no interest in a QB, even if they did fall. And I am wary of Carter, I think he lacks the drive to be great/love of the game. But it is moot, he won't there at #28. Smith is an OLB type and a poor scheme fit here, but as an situational rusher I still could do it. The other 8 would have me doing backflips.
Tier 2: 11
RB (1): Robinson
WR (2): Smith-Njigba, Flowers
TE (2): Mayer, Kincaid
OT (1): Wright
DE/Edge (2): Van Ness, Murphy
DT/NT (1): Kancey
CB (2): Forbes, Banks
That is 25 guys. So it is possible they all could be gone by #28.
I then tried/am trying to scour the net for mock drafts to see if my tiers are realistic or not. Do we really have no shot at my Tier 1 guys? How often are the Tier 2 guys actually available? How often does Trade Down Territory happen?
I concentrated in 3 sites (ESPN, NFL.com, and CBS Sports) and came up with 20 mocks. I am not finished yet (14 of 20 done). But the early findings (ESPN (3) + NFL Network (11)) yielded the following so far.
Tier 1 availability: None for non-QBs. 1 where Richardson fell, 2 for Levis.
Tier 2 availability: always at least 1 guy on the board. Though sometimes it is ONLY 1-2. 4 times with one, 5 with two. Some guys (Robinson, JSN, Van Ness, Flowers) have yet to be available.
Of the 14 mocks so far, availabilty for each of the 7 available at least once: Forbes 11 (picked once), Mayer 6 (3 picks), Murphy 4 (no picks), Banks 3 (1 pick), Kancey 3 (no picks), Wright 2 (2 picks), Kincaid 2 (2 picks). Of the two Wright mocks, one was from March, and one was non-predictive (Frelund's model for added wins for what each team SHOULD do).
5 out of 14 times, they had us taking Tier 3 players: Bresee, Brents, Harrison, Washington, and Musgrave.
The magic number of Tier 3 guys we need picked to guarantee Tier 2 availabilty (assuming Richardson & Levis go) is 3. Addison, Johnston, Branch, Hooker, and Torrence are the most common Tier 3 guys mocked before #28 so far.
I will update with more data after I add the CBS drafts to get to 20. I'd expect most/all of them to get updated once more before draft day. I also may add a couple more to get to 25. Still, early returns suggest my Tiers were pretty solid, though I tad optimistic in some guys falling to us.
YMMV on the Tiers, however.
With us drafting at #28, I tried to put the players into tiers.
Tier 1: Players I'd love but think there is no way they fall to us.
Tier 2: Players I'd love to take at #28 that MIGHT be there.
Tier 3: Players who are viable late 1st Rd picks, but I don't love. Trade down territory.
The Tiers, initially:
Tier 1: 14
QB (4): Young, Stroud, Richardson, Levis.
DE/Edge (3): Anderson, Wilson, N. Smith
DT/NT (1): Carter
CB (3): Witherspoon, Gonzalez, Porter
OT (3): Skoronski, Johnson, B. Jones
Obviously, we have no interest in a QB, even if they did fall. And I am wary of Carter, I think he lacks the drive to be great/love of the game. But it is moot, he won't there at #28. Smith is an OLB type and a poor scheme fit here, but as an situational rusher I still could do it. The other 8 would have me doing backflips.
Tier 2: 11
RB (1): Robinson
WR (2): Smith-Njigba, Flowers
TE (2): Mayer, Kincaid
OT (1): Wright
DE/Edge (2): Van Ness, Murphy
DT/NT (1): Kancey
CB (2): Forbes, Banks
That is 25 guys. So it is possible they all could be gone by #28.
I then tried/am trying to scour the net for mock drafts to see if my tiers are realistic or not. Do we really have no shot at my Tier 1 guys? How often are the Tier 2 guys actually available? How often does Trade Down Territory happen?
I concentrated in 3 sites (ESPN, NFL.com, and CBS Sports) and came up with 20 mocks. I am not finished yet (14 of 20 done). But the early findings (ESPN (3) + NFL Network (11)) yielded the following so far.
Tier 1 availability: None for non-QBs. 1 where Richardson fell, 2 for Levis.
Tier 2 availability: always at least 1 guy on the board. Though sometimes it is ONLY 1-2. 4 times with one, 5 with two. Some guys (Robinson, JSN, Van Ness, Flowers) have yet to be available.
Of the 14 mocks so far, availabilty for each of the 7 available at least once: Forbes 11 (picked once), Mayer 6 (3 picks), Murphy 4 (no picks), Banks 3 (1 pick), Kancey 3 (no picks), Wright 2 (2 picks), Kincaid 2 (2 picks). Of the two Wright mocks, one was from March, and one was non-predictive (Frelund's model for added wins for what each team SHOULD do).
5 out of 14 times, they had us taking Tier 3 players: Bresee, Brents, Harrison, Washington, and Musgrave.
The magic number of Tier 3 guys we need picked to guarantee Tier 2 availabilty (assuming Richardson & Levis go) is 3. Addison, Johnston, Branch, Hooker, and Torrence are the most common Tier 3 guys mocked before #28 so far.
I will update with more data after I add the CBS drafts to get to 20. I'd expect most/all of them to get updated once more before draft day. I also may add a couple more to get to 25. Still, early returns suggest my Tiers were pretty solid, though I tad optimistic in some guys falling to us.
YMMV on the Tiers, however.
