ESPN projected Murphy's sack totals for his rookie contract

[*ochocincos*]

(05-11-2023, 12:17 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I have no clue how they can possibly project that, but it isn't particularly low for a 1st round pick (first 5 years only, at least 4/5 years listed as DE according to PFR)...

2018
Bradley Chubb (5th): 28.5
Marcus Davenport (14th): 21.5
2017
Myles Garrett (1st): 58.5
Soloman Thomas (3rd): 9.5
Derek Barnett (14th): 21.5
Jonathan Allen (17th): 26.0
Takkarist McKinley (26th): 20.0
Taco Charlton (28th): 11.5
2016
Joey Bosa (3rd): 47.5
Shaq Lawson (19th): 20.5
2015
Leonard Williams (6th): 17.5
Shane Ray (23rd): 14.0
2014
Jadeveon Clowney (1st): 29.0

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You pretty much have Myles Garrett as a 1st overall pick freak, and Joey Bosa as a 3rd overall pick as the only real outliers. Even top-3 picks are only 50% great in that group... if you look at 1st round picks after the top-5, only Jonathan Allen out of the 7 has more than 22, at 26.

Fair point, but I guess I would mean fans (or at least myself) would be disappointed if that's all he got.
I think we (or I) want to see 30+ over the course of 5 years.
My expectation is an average of 6+ sacks per year, knowing that may not be achieved in the first couple years but we want Murphy to get into the 8+ by Year 4-5.

My reasoning for this expectation?
Sam Hubbard has put up 30.5 sacks in 5 years.
If Murphy's floor is Hubbard, I expect production like that.