Aliens

[*Synric*]

(06-09-2023, 06:48 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: Again, the odds of this are just mind boggling small. We are the product of at least 13.7 billion years of our un. Possibly the product of an infinite amount of what we perceive as time. The probability of intelligent life, in whatever form it might be, being within thousands of years of our current development is so minute. It is much more probable that such form is millions, if not billions, of years in front or behind that. 

The Milky Way has been around for 13.6 Billion years yes but our own solar system has only been 4.5 Billion years around 1/3rd of the time. That doesn't count the recent discoveries of the other 5 or 6 galaxies the of the same size and age as us. 


As the probabilities you keep mentioning here is an article in Frobes that uses a very low and extreme probabilites to GUESS (because that's all we can do) the forcast of intelligent life that is advanced enough to contract us.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2022/05/30/there-are-between-111-and-42777-intelligent-alien-civilizations-in-our-galaxy-say-scientists/?sh=55427fb830a8

Quote:So the figure of 42,777—which has an error rate of a few hundred each side—is on the optimistic side. It’s based on an estimate that only 0.1% of civilizations could become advanced enough to contact another. This is where the Great Filter comes in.

That’s the optimistic calculations. The authors’ pessimistic estimates are for just 0.001% of civilizations–about 111—to become advanced enough to contact another. The upshot of that would be that humans would need to wait for 400,000 years to receive a message.
“The minimum value (0.001%) we take may also be overestimated,” write the authors, Wenjie Song and He Gao at Beijing Normal University’s Department of Astronomy. “If so, the number of CETIs would become even lower, and the opportunities for communication between CETIs would become extremely small.”

Really the only thing saying we are rare is the fact we have not received any contact or seen any other signs of intelligent life enough though on the scale above shows fairly good probabilities we are not alone. We do not have enough information to make anything other than assumptions.


As to the OP: I finally got the read some of the articles about the Whislte blowers. Long work week lol
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/ex-intel-official-government-hiding-alien-tech.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11996773/Six-whistleblowers-spill-UFO-secrets-congress.html