SP trade targets you like

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(06-29-2023, 07:08 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Shortly after the 1st trade deadline hits in a month, this might be the rotation
Hunter Greene - due back in early August
Andrew Abbott
Graham Ashcraft
Brandon Williamson
Ben Lively - haven't heard anything on the pectoral MRI, if not, Weaver.

Also coming back down the road to push Weaver out
Nick Lodolo
Justin Dunn - schedule to throw live batting practice from August 8th until scheduled rehab assignment on August 22nd.

Ashcraft: 6.66 ERA (4.89 ERA last year, so career 5.63 ERA in the majors)
Williamson: 5.56 ERA (6.62 ERA in AAA this year)
Lively: Relief pitcher with a career 4.71 ERA as a starter, the only time he's thrown 100 innings in a season since 2016 was in 2020 in Korea
Weaver: 6.96 ERA (6.56 ERA last year)
Lodolo: 6.29 ERA, but at least he was good last year though I will wonder about bringing him back this year and risking the stress fracture healing 100%
Dunn: 6.10 ERA last year

So basically hoping that Hunter Greene comes back and stays healthy, and Lodolo comes back and pitches like he did in 2022. So only if two guys both come off the IL after being on it for over a month and return to form (and stay healthy) are you at 3 starters with Abbott who are major league starters. That's not enough. 

No matter how you cut it they need to add 2 decent starters at a minimum. They don't need to be all stars, but they need to at least be guys who can give you 6 innings of 3 run ball. 

One thing that will come into play later?
Greene has never thrown 130 innings in a season.
Lodolo has never thrown 120 innings in a season.
Abbott has never thrown 120 innings in a season.


You can't rely on them to carry the load in a 4 or 5 man rotation this year and still expect them to pitch in the postseason. You're going to need to go to 6 to spread out their starts a bit more and keep the innings to a reasonable escalation if you value their futures. Also to give the bullpen a bit more rest.

All these bad starters are also going to burn out the bullpen before we reach the postseason. I think we're already seeing it a bit with Diaz having a 4.00 ERA over his last 9 appearances, and on pace to appear in almost half of the games this year, Farmer with a 10.50 ERA over his last 7 appearances, Gibault 6.43 ERA over his last 7 appearances, Sims 9.00 ERA over his last 5 appearances.