SP trade targets you like

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-04-2023, 05:13 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: All I was saying is that teams may not want to deal until later and the Reds have re-enforcements coming back near that time. It cost Minnesota Spencer Steer to get Tyler Mahle . . . which is close to a 6 inning, 3 run pitcher(4.50 ERA). I'm not sure that they want to break up team chemistry for a rental.

Mahle's career 4.35 ERA in Cincinnati includes half of his starts at GABP. Getting a 4.50 ERA pitcher outside of Cincinnati will probably get you a 5.something ERA after pitching some time in GABP. If you're wanting a 6 inning, 3 run pitcher IN Cincinnati, he's going to have to have a 4.00 ERA or less because that ERA is going to take a hit at GABP, especially in the summer heat. 

Castillo
3.54 Cincinnati
3.15 Seattle

Gray
3.49 Cincinnati
2.83 Minnesota

Mahle
4.35 Cincinnati
3.64 Minnesota - only 9 games

DeSclafani
4.19 Cincinnati
3.83 San Francisco

Iglesias
3.15 Cincinnati
2.76 LA/Atlanta combined
3.07 LA Angels
2.12 Atlanta

So it's the starters fault that the Closer pitches a lot? That's a new one. 

And as for the ERAs the last few appearances, welcome to Summer baseball at GABP. The Reds are 18-4 in their last 22 games during these stretches with the inflated ERAs. The "Rally Reds" are also taking advantage of this heat. The team that couldn't hit a HR early on now has the second longest active streak of games with a HR.

I've stated many time before over the years, that Bell overuses the bullpen by making too many changes. Not enough pitchers are used for 2 innings. If Bell makes a pitching change to finish off the 5th inning, there's a good chance you're seeing 4 or 5 relievers tonight. This year, they made a conscious effort in Spring Training to put pressure on the base paths. At the end of this year, I would tell every reliever in the system to "stretch out" to be able to pitch two innings per outing and use that approach when building next years bullpen.

Greene has 73 1/3 innings and is scheduled to come back with less than two months left in the season. If he gets to 140, no need to shut him down.
Lodolo has 34 1/3 innings and is near the same time frame to return as Greene
Abbott has 91 1/3 innings in AA, AAA and in Cincinnati. He'll set a career high this month

Here's also what I said June 29th.
There is still one more start needed from either a AAA starter or a bullpen day before the break. Since that start is due Sunday in Milwaukee, I'm guessing that it will be a bullpen game because everybody but Diaz has 4 days off after that game. Personally, I'd give it to a minor leaguer like Stoudt or another guy that pops up out of nowhere like Kennedy to help eat some innings.

I don't particularly agree that the Reds are getting that much in reinforcements, though. Pretty much just Hunter Greene who you can expect to at least be average, and that's at LEAST a month away. Wins in July count just as much as wins in Sept.

I think you're underselling Tyler Mahle. He had a 3.59 ERA in 2020 (137 ERA+), 3.75 ERA in 2021 (125 ERA+), 4.40 ERA in 2022 (100 ERA+), and 3.16 ERA in 2023 (138 ERA+)... so 3 of his last 4 years he was significantly above average, and the most important part of his value is he was TERRIBLE in GABP. Anywhere else he actually IS an All-Star caliber pitcher. He has a 5.02 career ERA in GABP largely due to a 1.92 HR/9 while pitching there. So any other team acquiring him is getting a much much better pitcher when he doesn't have to worry about his pitching style of being a fly ball pitcher getting blasted in a small park. 

It's not just a straight conversion of pitching in GABP equals x increase in ERA for pitchers. It matters for things like.. is he a strikeout pitcher or a contact pitcher? Does he give up fly balls or ground balls? A 4.30 ERA ground ball pitcher coming to GABP will probably still be a 4.30 ERA pitcher. That's why Sonny Gray did so well his first two years here, he kept the ball on the ground greater than 50% of the time. Only his third year when he let his ground ball rate dip did he run into trouble.

When looking at the guys who are pitching elsewhere now, don't forget that the Reds completely gutted their pitching development and coaches as a cost saving measure. Also many of those guys' numbers you listed include their early career struggles. Comparing a guys numbers from when he was young and figuring out what works in the majors as batters adjust to him are always going to be higher. Clayton Kershaw had a 4.26 ERA his rookie year, Cueto had a 4.61 ERA his first two years. 

Sonny Gray had a worse ERA in both Oakland and New York, both of which are considered more pitcher friendly than GABP.
Disco had 1 good year with the Giants and had a 4.81 ERA his other two years there.

Also, the Reds were giving up 1.5 years of Mahle. That extra year adds a whole lot to the cost of acquiring a player. I am talking half year rentals.

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Yes, it can be the starters fault if the closers appear a lot if the starter stinks despite the offense being good. Closers are only coming into close games. 

Luke Weaver is a perfect example of this... He has a 6.72 ERA this year, but the Reds are 9-5 when he starts. 
3.1 IP, 5 ER, the Reds win 11-10.
3.2 IP, 7 ER, the Reds win 9-8
5.0 IP, 5 ER, the Reds win 9-7
5.2 IP, 6 ER, the Reds win 7-6

You replace those with 6 IP, 3 ER and none of those 4 become save opportunities anymore meaning Diaz is getting more rest.

It's not just summer in GABP, but thanks. It's not just about the contact and the ball carrying, it's about loss of control from exhaustion. Diaz had 7 walks over that 9 game span, his strikes were just at 58%, his swinging strikes at 15%, he was taking 18 pitches per inning. Meanwhile he had just 12 walks in his previous 29 appearances, was throwing 61% strikes, had 18% swinging strikes, and 16 pitches per inning. Struggling and it wasn't just contact (and thus Summer) related.

His FB only averaged 95+ in 3 of his last 10 appearances. His FB was 95+ in 6 of the 10 prior games.

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Turns out Kennedy stinks too if his last game is any indication. Lol