Reds July 2023 thread

[CJD]

(07-06-2023, 10:01 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep

Since losing series 1-3 vs. Brewers and then calling up DLC we're 21-6 winning 8 series and only losing 1 - Braves, thus far the best team in MLB. And we battled them hard losing 7-6 in two games.

Going back into May since getting swept by the Yankees we're 29-12 having lost only 2 series - Braves/Brewers. They've swept 4 series including the Astros on the road.

Abbott is quickly turning into the staff Ace. Ashcraft is pitching much better lately, granted he kinda got lucky yesterday. But I don't have a ton of faith in Weaver and Williamson.

Can Kennedy help us out? He looked decent the other day. But I'm worried about Greene and Lodolo. When will they be back? Will they be effective?

I'm still hoping they can trade some combo of Senzel/Newman/Barrero ? for just an average starter than can help fill the void if Greene and Lodolo aren't up to speed soon enough.

At any rate Reds baseball this summer is a hot ticket. Who woulda thunk it?

I get the appeal of trading Senzel and Newman but, man, they've been so good whenever we come up against a left hander.

Our lineup is surprisingly heavy on left handers with Friedl, Fraley, Votto, and Benson (with Elly switch hitting). Senzel and Newman can be swapped into the line up for Fraley and Benson (moving Steer to LF) against left handers.

Newman is hitting .258/.318/.371/.689 overall, but he's hitting .307/.388/.520/.908 against left handers.
Senzel is hitting .241/.315/.374/.689 overall, but he's hitting .373/.422/.627/1.049 against left handers (which is ridiculous).

It is not an exaggeration to say that Senzel may be the best platoon bat in the entire major leagues.

Moving those two into the line up against left handers for Fraley and Benson, who are batting .100/.200/.133/.333 and .100/.182/.300/.482 against left handers, respectively, is such an incredible boon, it has likely won us multiple games already.

For the season, we have an OPS of 0.776 against left handers, which is 5th in MLB behind only the Braves, Rays, Rangers and Marlins.

We could survive without them and if they brought in a good starting pitcher, the trade could be worthwhile, but we also have a bunch of guys coming off the IL at the beginning of next month in Greene and Lodolo as well as Lively later this month, who I think many people have forgotten about.

Lively has given us a 4.11 ERA in 7 starts and 40.2 starter innings (average depth of 5.2 to 6 innings per start), 46 innings total (his first "Start" was during a bullpen day following an opener and he also took over a Greene start that was getting away from him), a WHIP of 1.26, 45K and only 13 BB (K/BB of 3.5).


What are the odds we can find a pitcher that could provide those kinds of stats for a hand full of platoon players and "fresh starters" (like Barrero)?

Our rotation of Abbott, Ashcraft, Williamson, Kennedy and, soon, Lively, (along with Weaver...ugh), has been good enough for the month of June. If we can make it through July to get Greene and Lodolo back to have a rotation of Abbott, Ashcraft, Greene, Lodolo and one of Lively/Kennedy/Weaver or Phillips, I think that's a playoff caliber rotation with no trade needed.

Plus, any trade will likely occur around the end of the month since teams will want to wait to the last second to make sure they're getting the best deal, so we may be stuck with this rotation as it is until the end of July anyway.