07-10-2023, 02:15 AM
Fun fact for those who care about mock drafts.
Keith Law had all three of the Reds' picks tonight going in the first round.
https://theathletic.com/4671798/2023/07/07/mlb-mock-draft-langford-pirates-crews-clark/
Seems we got decent value in these first three picks.
I also really like the intention behind these picks. In my mind, the Reds need to do two things in the coming years:
1. Amp up their MLB pitching quickly.
2. Maintain the stream of MLB bats as the current set of rookies enter arbitration and, eventually, free agency/being traded away.
The first point is fairly straight forward. We are in the thick of a playoff race and seem to be legit. Our main weakness is pitching. Pitching is EXPENSIVE both in free agency and via trade, so why not develop your own? We've done it with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott and Diaz, and are working on it with Petty and Phillips. Adding more college arms to this farm system increases the odds that we can improve our MLB pitching in the next 2 seasons to bolster any development, free agents and trades we may make in the next 10 months as we prepare for the beginning of our true window of contention, 2024 (or maybe we just surprise people and go on a run this year :) ).
The second point is a little more controversial, but we have a group of potential stars that are playing on rookie level money. Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Johnathan India, Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl, Will Benson, Jake Fraley, Tyler Stephenson, and, in the near future, CES and Noelvi Marte are playing for less than a million dollars each per year.
India's arbitration is about to start, so his salary will jump, but the others are looking at ~750k per year for the next 2 to 3 seasons.
Eventually, these players will all graduate from our control, somewhere around 2027 or 2028 for the first set (Fraley, Stephenson, Friedl and whoever comes in 2nd place in RoTY voting behind Carroll, probably McLain or Elly).
We'll be able to pay some of them...but we won't be able to pay all of them.
So drafting young high school bats with projectable traits means that, around 2027 or 2028, they may be ready to make the leap to the major leagues. Maybe apprentice behind the player they're replacing for a year, and then take over in 2029. They started last year with Cam Collier and continue the trend here with Stafura.
I don't know who we'll keep over the others. I really hope we sign Elly and McLain to 10 year contracts, but the Reds are historically a very fickle team. So planning for the future with high upside high school bats is a good strategy.
I don't think college bats will be all that helpful for this team (relative to college arms and high school bats), as our line up is pretty stacked for the foreseeable future. It's all about planning for that end of this window in preparation for the next window. College bats will gain more value in the 2025 through 2027 drafts, I imagine, when we're looking for that next crop of Matt McLains and Johnathan Indias (and Nick Senzels, even though he hasn't worked out quite like we hoped, he's still a contributor to the team's success).
Elly De La Cruz, after all, was signed in 2018. Friedl was signed in 2016. Rebuilds start half a decade before they manifest in the major leagues and I like the forward thinking of picking high school bats at this stage of the team's development.
Keith Law had all three of the Reds' picks tonight going in the first round.
Quote:9. Colorado Rockies – Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
I’ve been told the safest bet in the top 10 is the Rockies taking a college arm, which would be Lowder, Dollander or maybe Hurston Waldrep. I haven’t heard Ty Floyd with them but I wouldn’t fall out of my chair with surprise either.
Quote:17. Baltimore Orioles – Ty Floyd, RHP, LSU
If you’re asking me to bet on a category, I’d still bet they’re more likely to take a hitter than a pitcher, but Floyd has flown up everyone’s boards lately and he does have the fastball characteristics that the Orioles seem to value. If they go bat, it could be Houck, Arjun Nimmala or Eldridge, or maybe they just take any good college bat who slides like Troy or Shaw.
Quote:26. New York Yankees – Sammy Stafura, SS, Walter Panas High (Cortlandt, N.Y.)
This connection keeps coming back around, whether it’s because they really value Stafura’s defense and speed that highly or just because they saw the local kid the most. I’ve heard them with Eldridge, Head, Thomas White and Peete; and wouldn’t be surprised if they went after a college arm here like Floyd or Joe Whitman.
https://theathletic.com/4671798/2023/07/07/mlb-mock-draft-langford-pirates-crews-clark/
Seems we got decent value in these first three picks.
I also really like the intention behind these picks. In my mind, the Reds need to do two things in the coming years:
1. Amp up their MLB pitching quickly.
2. Maintain the stream of MLB bats as the current set of rookies enter arbitration and, eventually, free agency/being traded away.
The first point is fairly straight forward. We are in the thick of a playoff race and seem to be legit. Our main weakness is pitching. Pitching is EXPENSIVE both in free agency and via trade, so why not develop your own? We've done it with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott and Diaz, and are working on it with Petty and Phillips. Adding more college arms to this farm system increases the odds that we can improve our MLB pitching in the next 2 seasons to bolster any development, free agents and trades we may make in the next 10 months as we prepare for the beginning of our true window of contention, 2024 (or maybe we just surprise people and go on a run this year :) ).
The second point is a little more controversial, but we have a group of potential stars that are playing on rookie level money. Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Johnathan India, Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl, Will Benson, Jake Fraley, Tyler Stephenson, and, in the near future, CES and Noelvi Marte are playing for less than a million dollars each per year.
India's arbitration is about to start, so his salary will jump, but the others are looking at ~750k per year for the next 2 to 3 seasons.
Eventually, these players will all graduate from our control, somewhere around 2027 or 2028 for the first set (Fraley, Stephenson, Friedl and whoever comes in 2nd place in RoTY voting behind Carroll, probably McLain or Elly).
We'll be able to pay some of them...but we won't be able to pay all of them.
So drafting young high school bats with projectable traits means that, around 2027 or 2028, they may be ready to make the leap to the major leagues. Maybe apprentice behind the player they're replacing for a year, and then take over in 2029. They started last year with Cam Collier and continue the trend here with Stafura.
I don't know who we'll keep over the others. I really hope we sign Elly and McLain to 10 year contracts, but the Reds are historically a very fickle team. So planning for the future with high upside high school bats is a good strategy.
I don't think college bats will be all that helpful for this team (relative to college arms and high school bats), as our line up is pretty stacked for the foreseeable future. It's all about planning for that end of this window in preparation for the next window. College bats will gain more value in the 2025 through 2027 drafts, I imagine, when we're looking for that next crop of Matt McLains and Johnathan Indias (and Nick Senzels, even though he hasn't worked out quite like we hoped, he's still a contributor to the team's success).
Elly De La Cruz, after all, was signed in 2018. Friedl was signed in 2016. Rebuilds start half a decade before they manifest in the major leagues and I like the forward thinking of picking high school bats at this stage of the team's development.
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
