Will We See a Lot of Hill?

[Shake n Blake]

(12-26-2015, 03:16 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Shake n Blake
Look, I get that it's popular to pick on Brad, but I understood what he was saying/asking. 

Hill just doesn't have it this year, but when I see a player rush for 1100 yards on 5.1 ypc and then see that ypc drop to 3.3 the next season, I think it's a little more complex than simply saying he sucks or suddenly "lacks vision". There could be numerous factors, such as change in offensive philosophy, blocking schemes, fullback usage, etc. 

Also it's possible that Hill is playing through undisclosed injury (it happens) or maybe he's just dancing more this year. Either way, I believe Hill proved his physical talent last year. He ripped off constant big gainers and looked like he was going to be a stud for years. You just don't see scrubs coming in and doing what he did last year.

It's more likely that it's a down year for him and something needs to change in order for him to regain his old form. We've seen down years from RBs many times. Doug Martin was abysmal for 2 years after a stellar rookie season. Now he's leading the NFL in rushing. The talent was always there.

Maybe an undisclosed injury could explain Hill, but otherwise Doug Martin isn't a good example because he was hurt those two years he stunk. 6 games in one year, 11 in the other. Now he's healthy again and now he's good again.

As for the "You don't see scrubs coming in and doing what he did last year." I will point to LeGarrette Blount, Peyton Hillis, and Reggie Brooks.
Blount started his career with 1,007 yards at 5.0 YPC. Then went on to have 781 yards/4.2 YPC ithe next year.
Hillis had 1,177 yards at 4.4 YPC. Then went on to have 587 yards/3.6 YPC the next year.
Brooks had 1,063 yards at 4.8 YPC his rookie year. Then went on to have 297 yards at 3.0 YPC the next year.

Possibly the most apt comparison I can make for what is happening to Hill is Steve Slaton. Slaton had 1,282 yards at 4.8 YPC his rookie year. He also had a fumbling problem. His next year he had 437 yards at 3.3 YPC. Eventually faded out of the league.

Honestly, Blount is still a good player. The Pats don't often feature 1 RB, but Blount has been a very effective starter for them. Hillis is a good example, but the fact that you had to go back 20 years for your other example (Brooks) just proves my point. It's very rare to see a RB play at that level and then disappear for non-injury reasons.

I'm very familiar with Slaton because I drafted him twice in fantasy and was interested in the Bengals picking him up several years ago. Slaton fell into Kubiak's dog house due to a big fumbling problem. It was also rumored that injuries sapped his effectiveness. The Texans ran a pretty unique zone-blocking scheme that suited Slaton well. He was pretty useless elsewhere.