Mixon contract restructure finalizing

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-15-2023, 09:12 AM)Soonerpeace Wrote: I know I know you think ownership/staff screwed up again. Big shock

Nice failure to read because you were so excited to reply to me. It was a paycut, not a restructure as initially posted, so I didn't think they screwed up because I said I liked it. I just didn't want a restructure because I didn't want to give Mixon a larger dead cap number in 2024. They didn't. 

My whole post that you replied to was after 28 seems to be where a cliff often is for RBs, and Mixon is heading into his 28, not after. You'd think someone who researched and studied my posting history so extensively would at least read what he's replying to.

RBs who are 28 aren't in their prime. RBs are a position where their primes are much earlier.

Last 10 Years of 1st Team All-Pro RBs
Josh Jacobs: age 24 season
Jonathan Taylor: age 22 season
Derrick Henry: age 26 season
Christian McCaffrey: age 23 season
Todd Gurley: age 24 season
Toddy Gurley: age 23 season
Ezekiel Elliott: age 21 season
Doug Martin: age 26 season / Adrian Peterson: age 30 season
DeMarco Murray: age 26 season / Le'Veon Bell: age 22 season
LeSean McCoy: age 25 season / Jamaal Charles: age 27 season

Average age: ~24.5 years old

If a RB is 28, they're not in their prime. That was the whole point of the post.

(07-15-2023, 11:13 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: E Smith 32
W Payton 33
F Gore  33
A Peterson 33
C Martin 31 
T Thomas 30
F Taylor 31
C Dillon 30
R Watters 31
E George 30


All these guys had 1000+ seasons after their 30th birthday. You're absolutely right that the list of guys with longevity and production is short. Mixon just needs to be part of a RBBC and i don't see why he can't get at least 800-1100 yds per season for the next 3. 

A lot of HoFers on that list. If you added Joe Mixon to that list, would you feel like he belonged? 3 years is a loooong time in the NFL for RBs. All those guys had much further to decline because they started at a much higher level. 

In baseball terms...
It's kind of like how Joey Votto was 55-75% above average offensively in his prime. So in 2021, being 39% above average WAS heavy decline but still good. Meanwhile Brandon Phillips was around 5% above average offensively in his prime. So when he declined a little entering his 30s, he immediately became below average.

Mixon is a career 4.1 YPC RB, and never above 4.1 over the last 4 years. You can't decline much more from that and still be any good. I think he'll be okayish this year (minus pass blocking) but I just can't see him being effective in 2024 let alone 2025.