Trade Deadline Thread

[CJD]

(08-10-2023, 09:09 PM)kevin Wrote: When in doubt, go with youth.  Yes it is working for Baltimore, but it has worked for Tampa even more for years as they finish high with half the payroll of New York, Boston or Toronto in a league I would hate to see Cincinnati try to compete in. 

Now when Reds have added a veteran player on the cheap such as Tony Fernandez or Scooter Gennett, sure.  However what Reds paid to bring in The Moose was insane, plus Reds already had high paid Votto at First and Suarez at Third.  What Reds paid The Moose hurt this team, and Reds are still paying him.  

So when in doubt, go with youth, a move that has served Tampa well in keeping up with New York, Boston, Toronto on half the payroll in Tampa. 

Reds have plenty of youth to go with.  Again, if they can add a good veteran on the cheap, fine.  Just no more Moose type moves. 

Moose type moves have forced Reds to let go of good young pitchers and hitters.  I would hate to see Hunter Greene or De La Cruz shoot off to Yankees or Dodgers because Reds continue to make Moose type high paid additions.

The problem with the Moose signing was we paid for what he had already done, not for what we thought he'd be able to do. He was 31 when we signed him and was coming off of an all star season, but I remember he was still viewed as a player on the decline.

Oddly enough, he had his 2 worst seasons since 2012 with us, and then he has had a rebound year with Colorado and LAA this year. With a season slash line of .278/.337/.469/.806 so far this year, it makes you wonder if maybe the expectation of being a big name free agent in Cincinnati got to him.

Regardless, if we sign any high priced free agents this off season, I would like for them to be up and coming players rather than peaked guys. He opted out of the contract, but Nick Castellanos was a really good signing for us. We signed him following his age 27 season in which he had a career high 153 OPS+ in 51 games after being traded to Chicago and then, in 2021, he topped his 2019 season with a 138 OPS+ over the course of the full season.

The high end of the pitching market would be a guy like Julio Urias. He is a 26 year old left handed pitcher with a career ERA of 3.03 over 154 games (118 starts) with a WHIP of 1.10. He is entering the market on a relative down year, with an ERA of only 4.39 (101 ERA+), so there's a chance he would take a 1 year deal to re-establish his value in 2024. He will still probably cost somewhere around 25 million per year which would be a hard pill to swallow considering Luis Castillo signed for just 21 million per year with Seattle, but the free agent market is always inflated in cost.

On the lower end of the market that would still interest me, Jack Flaherty, Brad Keller and Lucas Giolito are all sub-30 pitchers with career ERAs in the high 3s, low 4s. 

Flaherty is the best of the 3, with a career 114 ERA+, and 3.58 career ERA, but 2023 will have been his second straight average year following a dominant start from 2018 to 2021 (ERA+ of 116, 152 and 122 in 2018, 2019 and 2021.)

Keller and Giolitto are much closer to league average pitchers (ERA+ of 100 or so) but Keller is another one who has been below average recently, with his early years buoying his career stats.

And then Luis Severino could be a 1 year "prove last year was a fluke" option, as he has a career ERA of 3.81 and ERA+ of 111, but his 2023 ERA is 6.64 and 2023 ERA+ is 52. 

It's difficult to find all stars in the free agent market because, usually, if a player is any good the team with control of him will either extend him or trade him before his contract expires. But if they're looking for a veteran presence in the rotation that isn't on the wrong side of 30, those would be potential options that wouldn't destroy their bank accounts (with the exception of Urias)