Trade Deadline Thread

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-10-2023, 10:39 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Buying rentals at the deadline is risky business. Despite the struggles we've had coming out of the trade deadline, I am still glad we didn't buy. We have 5 years ahead of us with all these young guys before we even need to pay for them. 

Hao-Yu Lee was the Phillies' 8th ranked prospect with a FV of 50. I think "no power" is a bit of an exaggeration. He has 15 HRs in 160 career games. That seems about average to me. Especially since several stops in the minors tend to be pitchers' ballparks more so than hitters parks like GABP.

The general equivalent from our system would have been maybe Sal Stewart. He's our 7th ranked prospect, 19 years old in A+, 2nd round pick in 2022. Also plays on the infield. 10 HR in 98 games, similar batting averages etc.

Would it have been worth it to trade Sal Stewart for 2 months of Michael Lorenzen? It's hard to say.

The team that has played the last 10 games does not look like they're one starting pitcher away from the World Series or even a playoff win. 

The last thing you want to do is be the LA Angels, who are on the fringe of the playoff picture, buy at the deadline and then lose 7 straight, essentially playing themselves out of playoff contention. Granted, they play in a much more competitive division than we do.

But I bet they are kicking themselves for not trading Ohtani right now. They could have set themselves up very nicely for the future. Instead, they are heading for losing him for free and still missing the playoffs.

Our situation is obviously not that dire, but if we did something like trade Marte (+ more, most likely) away for Dylan Cease, who has a 4.42 ERA this year and was just chased out of the 2nd inning in his start last Wednesday, I'd be a bit frustrated right now.

Except they don't if the rookies are any good. If they are any good (which they will need to be for there to be any window in the future) they will make a lot of money in arbitration. 

A very mediocre former Red, Kyle Farmer, got over $5.5m as an Arb2 guy this season. Alex Verdugo, a league average bat, got $6.3m. 

On the high end, Shohei Ohtani got $30m for his last year of team control. Pete Alonso as an arb2 guy got $14.5m which means he'll get even more next year despite being under team control.

This is a team that waived Wade Miley rather than pay him $10m, gave away Sonny Gray rather than pay him 2yr/$22m, and gave away Raisel Iglesias rather than pay him $9m. So once all the young rookies from this year hit arb2, that's already the beginning of the end. The only way they will all still be around is if they aren't very good, and thus won't cost much in arbitration.

So really the Reds have just 3 more years before they become too expensive for this cheap FO. Assuming they stay healthy and keep getting better like we hope.

India and Stephenson reach arbitration for their first time next year, so goodbye to their combined $1.52m payroll. Heck, in 2 years Hunter Greene will be $8.3m and then the year after that he'll be $15.3m.

They do not have 5 years before having to pay guys.

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Yes, because I have never heard of him before just now. I'll also probably never hear of him again.

I didn't want one starting pitcher. I wanted 2 starting pitchers and a long reliever. I wanted 2 starting pitchers like 2 months ago. It was 100% predictable that Abbott would get tired out with a career high workload plus rookie wall, and all the bad starters would burn up the bullpen.

The playoffs are largely a crapshoot, mostly anyone there has a puncher's chance. You have to get there first and this division was wide open to take. Nobody has ever won a World Series while watching the playoffs from home. It will never be the year if you wait for all the stars to align before you are willing to make ANY moves towards winning in the current year. 

We knew the starting rotation was going to be bad before the season even started and did nothing in a winnable division. That's a bit of "you make your own luck" there. If they added 2 league average starting pitchers to this team on Opening Day and they've easily got an 8-10 game lead in the division right now.

Heck, maybe if they made some moves at the deadline this team wouldn't look so dead in the water because they wouldn't have seen the front office just punt the season away and wave the white flag. If your FO isn't trying and is already looking towards next season, naturally so will you.