PFF Bengals 2023 team/player predictions

[*ochocincos*]

(08-10-2023, 10:37 PM)Soonerpeace Wrote: PFF predicts another epic Bengals season in 2023

CINCINNATI BENGALS

1. Charlie Jones finds a way to significantly contribute as a rookie

Though most of these predictions are rooted in some kind of hard data, this one is truly just a gut feeling. In fact, things need to go wrong for this to have any chance of coming true. With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in place, there is no real path to the field for rookie Charlie Jones. And yet, Trenton Irwin played more than 350 snaps last season, including random games where he became a real target for Joe Burrow.

Jones just consistently made plays last season at Purdue, seeing 154 targets and gaining 2.7 yards per route run. The Bengals shouldn’t need him to make any kind of contribution, but I suspect he finds a way to make one anyway.

2. Irv Smith Jr. has a Pro Bowl season

For years, the feeling every offseason has been “if only Irv Smith Jr. could stay healthy.” In a four-year NFL career, he has played just more than 1,500 snaps in total, between one and two full seasons worth. Dropping a critical pass in the playoff game last season soured many fans on him, but he had just five drops on 126 total targets as a Minnesota Viking and still has high-end athleticism and speed. Joe Burrow has been friendly to tight ends during his time in the NFL, and if Smith can stay healthy this year, he could be a weapon in this offense.

3. Joe Burrow remains a top-five most-sacked quarterback

This was one of last season’s bold predictions, and it hit. Despite significant additions to the offensive line, Joe Burrow continues to take more sacks than he should — he simply skews in that direction stylistically. Burrow would rather squeeze every last ounce out of a play than give up on it and live to fight another down.

For his career, 24.3% of pressured plays result in sacks — a largely quarterback-driven data point — a figure that comes in more than twice as high as the lowest quarterbacks in the league. Orlando Brown Jr. represents another significant addition to the line, but it won’t stop Burrow from being Burrow. He will remain one of the most-sacked quarterbacks in the league.

So, how did PFF see the Bengals' 2023 regular-season panning out? Let's take a look.
PFF simulates Bengals 2023 regular season
* Week 1 @ Browns: 27-31 Loss
* Week 2 vs. Ravens: 16-26 Loss
* Week 3 vs. Rams: 22-15 Win
* Week 4 @ Titans: 24-18 Win
* Week 5 @ Cardinals: 24-21 Win
* Week 6 vs. Seahawks: 34-13 Win
* Week 8 @ 49ers: 15-37 Loss
* Week 9 vs. Bills: 30-20 Win
* Week 10 vs. Texans: 15-5 Win
* Week 11 @ Ravens: 29-26 Win
* Week 12 vs. Steelers: 30-27 Win
* Week 13 @ Jaguars: 26-12 Win
* Week 14 vs. Colts: 34-14 Win
* Week 15 vs. Vikings: 12-22 Loss
* Week 16 @ Steelers: 30-3 Win
* Week 17 @ Chiefs: 31-38 Loss
* Week 18 vs. Browns: 27-10 Win
PFF predicts the Bengals to go 12-5 with losses to the Browns and Ravens right out of the gate, putting them in the exact same situation they found themselves in last year. They go on to win their next four games to sit at 4-2 before losing big to the 49ers out of the BYE week and then ripping off six straight wins in what's thought to be their toughest stretch of the season.
The Bengals are projected to close out the season with losses to the Vikings and Chiefs in two of their final four games. They finish strong with a commanding win over the Browns in Week 18 to boast a 12-5 record at the end of the season.
Joe Burrow throws for an eye-popping 5,209 yards, 39 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. The yardage total is astounding but the double-digit interceptions could potentially take him out of the MVP running.
The most surprising thing about this projection is that none of the three receivers finish with 1,000 yards to their name. They all have over 900 yards receiving with Tee Higgins leading the way with 995, Ja'Marr Chase coming in second with 988, and Tyler Boyd bringing up the rear with 949 yards.

Joe Mixon has an incredible bounce-back season, totaling 1,930 yards from scrimmage with 1,324 of those coming on the ground. He finishes with five rushing touchdowns. Chase Brown has 422 total yards and two rushing scores during his rookie campaign.
Shockingly, when I had PFF simulate the three other AFC North opponents' seasons, they had the Ravens finishing with a 7-10 record, the Browns finishing just two games back of the Bengals with a 10-7 record, and the Steelers actually finishing with the same record as Cincinnati. This would mean that the Bengals would still win the division due to sweeping Pittsburgh but who would have predicted that?

It is worth noting that these projections change with every simulation so this was just one round of these. I'll be curious to see how much things change for the Bengals and within the division the next time I run the simulation.

I know you said it was a simulation, but the simulator just seems to be improbable for the bolded.

Boyd's targets and production have been declining each of the past 3 seasons, so unless there's an injury factored in to Chase and/or Higgins, I think Boyd is once again in the 700-800 yard range with Chase and/or Higgins for sure having 1000+ yards. Definitely not seeing Boyd have 900+ if Mixon and Smith are also getting more heavy into the passing game.

Mixon having over 600 yards receiving in this simulation? The most he's had was 441. Jumping over 150 more receiving yards feels overly improbable, I think.

The overall record on the year feels about right though.