Setback for Lodolo's Return

[*ochocincos*]

(08-23-2023, 12:20 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Well, the good news is I don't think a starting pitcher at the trade deadline would have really helped them. In their 6-12 skid since the beginning of August, their offense has scored 3 or fewer runs 9 times. They've scored 4 runs 4 times. That's 72% of the time, their offense has failed to produce quality results.

Their teamwide OPS of .704 in August is the worst they've had in a single month since April. Their OBP of .295 is the worst single month in 2023, as is their .228 batting average. 

Their team ERA in the month is heavily slanted by two catastrophic games against the Cubs on August 1st and 2nd (in which they gave up 36 runs in two games). In the other 16 games, we received 4 QS from Ashcraft, 1 QS from Williamson, 1 near QS from Abbott and Williamson (.1 out away), another near QS (5 IP) from Abbott and Kennedy, and a half decent start from Weaver (only 1 ER, but on 4.1 IP) and then a decent start by Williamson (4 ER, 5.2 IP). 

By my tally, we got good or great starting pitching 11 of those 16 games. Of the 5 bad starts, 2 were Weaver, 1 was Greene, 1 was Richardson and the final was a bad start by Abbott.

Now, you can say that if we traded for a guy like Giolito at the deadline, we could have replaced those two Weaver (3 if you count the meh 4.1 IP one) and MAYBE the Richardson (it would depend on the timing) starts with a new pitcher, our offense still only scored 3 runs in the 4 of those 5 games (we actually won one of Weaver's bad starts 6 to 5). So he would have needed to be elite in those 3 to 4 starts to have made any difference to our team's position right now. 

Problem is, since he was traded, Giolito has been pretty awful, putting up a 7.06 ERA in 4 starts in August, his outing last night being his best since being traded. 

So it's a toss up. Would trading for a rental like Giolito or Lynn (who, has been incredible in August since being traded with an ERA of just 1.44 in 4 starts) have resulted in more wins? 

With the way this offense has been performing, it's hard to say.

I think we made the right choice by not trading for any starting pitching at the deadline. The Angels gave away a top 100 prospect (MLB Pipeline #86, 55 FV prospect Edgar Quero) and a FV 45 left handed pitching prospect who is close to the majors (Ky Bush) in exchange for Giolito, who is just a rental. 

An equivalent trade from our farm system would have been something like CES (#72 prospect per MLB Pipeline) or Connor Phillips (#72 prospect) and a pitching prospect like Lyon Richardson (also 45 FV, also near the majors).

Personally, I would have been pretty upset if we made that trade haha.

There's always risk that the guy you trade for doesn't end up being what you hoped he'd be.
And, as you said, it's not actually been the starting pitching during this August skid, so it may not really have made a difference.
But as it stands now, we're going to have to "settle" for someone like Lively or Phillips to round out the rotation.
Lively had done well in 4 of the previous 5 starts, but that last one that sent him to the IL really was terrible.
Phillips, like any other minor leaguer, is an unknown at the big league level.

I'd just hate to see the Reds fall just a few games short of making the playoffs, but maybe it won't ultimately be because of a lack of moves at the deadline and more of the fact that the offense is so young and the pitching was bad for the first half of the year, in which a trade wouldn't have been able to change.

Hopefully Lodolo bounces back by next year's spring training, if anything.