08-26-2023, 02:59 PM
I think EDLC and McLain are going to be the two stars of the team. They just have everything you want. Great physical tools and excellent advanced stats too (Elly is 85% in avg exit velocity, 83% in hard hit %, 100% in sprint speed, 99% in arm strength, 81% in OAA etc. McLain is above average in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Hard hit %, barrel %, chase rate, and arm strength with elite speed and OAA). The sooner they get them signed long term, the better. EDLC will probably be harder than McLain due to his agent and his hype, but these guys will be the face of the franchise.
CES looks like a decent hitter with some power. I could see him being a 25 or 30 HR threat when all's said and done with an average somewhere around .250 or .260. Maybe not a star, since he does chase way too much, but he should be a solid 5 or 6 hitter for the length of his rookie control.
Marte is too early to tell, but he seems to be average or above average in just about every tool, so he'll be a valuable member of the team too.
Steer is the wild card to me. He has been way better than I thought he would be. If he can maintain a ~25 HR .275 pace that he's had this year, he'll be an ideal clean up hitter with McLain and Elly ahead of him. He has elite chase rates, sprint speed, walk rate, strikeout rate, speed and above average whiff %, xwOBA, arm strength and exit velocity but...wow. He is a terrible defender. He may end up being a career DH unless he gets his shit together. 1% in OAA at the moment.
Friedl is a bit harder to predict. He has been successful this year, but a lot of his metrics are very bad. 9% percentile in avg exit velocity, 4% percentile in hard hit %, 2% percentile in xSLG, 27% in xBA, 6% in xwOBA, 3% in barrel %. He is excellent at not striking out (82%), not whiffing (87%), not chasing (73%), with great defense (83% OAA) and speed (77%), but part of me wonders if his offense is a house of cards waiting to be blown down.
I think Abbott will ultimately be a great #2 or 3 starter. He may not be an ace ( he gives up a lot of hard hits, barrels, and exit velocity with average walk, whiff, and chase rates.), but he will usually give you a good 6 innings most nights. And he has plenty of room to improve.
Williamson, I'm a little less bullish about. He has had a good season, but his advanced stats make me wonder if they may be due to luck. below average exit velocity allowed, hard hit %, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, K%, Whiff%, Chase rate, fastball velocity, and extension.
Ashcraft has similarly underwhelming advanced stats, so we'll have to see how these three young pitchers do. What he really struggles with is inconsistency. The one thing he does seem to have an uncanny knack for, however, is missing the barrel of the bat. He's got below average xBA, xSLG, whiff rate, K rate, chase rate and extension, but he is elite at allowing low exit velocities and barrel% and about average at allowing hard hits and walks. I don't have a way to view his stats by month, but I imagine a lot of his terrible numbers come from that 2 month stretch where he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. So the big question with him is whether he is this guy we are currently seeing, or if he's the guy from June. Or maybe somewhere in between...
Greene is coming back from injury, so I will spare him the advanced stats evaluation (They're bad), but he does get a lot of whiffs and strikeouts so at least there's that.
Lodolo it's too early to tell because of his injuries.
Richardson it's WAY too early to tell, but he needs to control his pitches better. He's all over the place right now (6 walks, 5 K in 7.1 IP, averaging almost 20 pitches per inning)
We have a lot of young, exciting players on this team and the ceiling is nearly limitless. It'll be interesting to see which ones hit that ceiling.
My money is on Elly, McLain and Abbott becoming the best players of the above, but Ashcraft is definitely one to keep an eye on, based on where he ends up between his two extremes.
CES looks like a decent hitter with some power. I could see him being a 25 or 30 HR threat when all's said and done with an average somewhere around .250 or .260. Maybe not a star, since he does chase way too much, but he should be a solid 5 or 6 hitter for the length of his rookie control.
Marte is too early to tell, but he seems to be average or above average in just about every tool, so he'll be a valuable member of the team too.
Steer is the wild card to me. He has been way better than I thought he would be. If he can maintain a ~25 HR .275 pace that he's had this year, he'll be an ideal clean up hitter with McLain and Elly ahead of him. He has elite chase rates, sprint speed, walk rate, strikeout rate, speed and above average whiff %, xwOBA, arm strength and exit velocity but...wow. He is a terrible defender. He may end up being a career DH unless he gets his shit together. 1% in OAA at the moment.
Friedl is a bit harder to predict. He has been successful this year, but a lot of his metrics are very bad. 9% percentile in avg exit velocity, 4% percentile in hard hit %, 2% percentile in xSLG, 27% in xBA, 6% in xwOBA, 3% in barrel %. He is excellent at not striking out (82%), not whiffing (87%), not chasing (73%), with great defense (83% OAA) and speed (77%), but part of me wonders if his offense is a house of cards waiting to be blown down.
I think Abbott will ultimately be a great #2 or 3 starter. He may not be an ace ( he gives up a lot of hard hits, barrels, and exit velocity with average walk, whiff, and chase rates.), but he will usually give you a good 6 innings most nights. And he has plenty of room to improve.
Williamson, I'm a little less bullish about. He has had a good season, but his advanced stats make me wonder if they may be due to luck. below average exit velocity allowed, hard hit %, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, K%, Whiff%, Chase rate, fastball velocity, and extension.
Ashcraft has similarly underwhelming advanced stats, so we'll have to see how these three young pitchers do. What he really struggles with is inconsistency. The one thing he does seem to have an uncanny knack for, however, is missing the barrel of the bat. He's got below average xBA, xSLG, whiff rate, K rate, chase rate and extension, but he is elite at allowing low exit velocities and barrel% and about average at allowing hard hits and walks. I don't have a way to view his stats by month, but I imagine a lot of his terrible numbers come from that 2 month stretch where he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. So the big question with him is whether he is this guy we are currently seeing, or if he's the guy from June. Or maybe somewhere in between...
Greene is coming back from injury, so I will spare him the advanced stats evaluation (They're bad), but he does get a lot of whiffs and strikeouts so at least there's that.
Lodolo it's too early to tell because of his injuries.
Richardson it's WAY too early to tell, but he needs to control his pitches better. He's all over the place right now (6 walks, 5 K in 7.1 IP, averaging almost 20 pitches per inning)
We have a lot of young, exciting players on this team and the ceiling is nearly limitless. It'll be interesting to see which ones hit that ceiling.
My money is on Elly, McLain and Abbott becoming the best players of the above, but Ashcraft is definitely one to keep an eye on, based on where he ends up between his two extremes.
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
