10-11-2023, 09:54 PM
(10-11-2023, 09:45 PM)Joelist Wrote: Run game context.
We have a 3.5 YPA average which is 26th in the league. We've also only rushed 106 times in 5 games. I would argue this is at least partly a byproduct of us being almost 100% in shotgun - not the best rush formation. Also with only 106 carries any negative play like a kneel is far bigger an effect. As to breakdowns, that is interesting. We are worst running wide right (1.6 YPA) and our best runs are inside left (5.3 YPC) and inside right (also 5.3 YPC). In fact When we run using the gaps between LT and LG, or LG and C or C and RG the combined YPC is 4.85. So clearly we run best inside. When they do go wide for the edges we are WAY better going left than right. Kinda interesting.
Runs from shotgun are more efficient in nearly every way than under center. In fact, it isn't even close. Since 1999 (as far back as my data goes), shotgun runs average a full yard more per carry than under center. They convert short yardage situations more often, score touchdowns more often, have a higher amount of explosive runs, higher EPA per carry. Everything. In my head, this is likely a product of the personnel used when in shotgun. You are more likely to get favorable numbers in the box. Over his career, Mixon has also ran better from shotgun, averaging .4 yards more per carry (4.31 vs 3.93). For the season, Cincinnati is averaging 3.82 yards on designed runs, by the way. This accounts for anything like kneel downs.
