2024 TE prospects

[*ochocincos*]

(10-18-2023, 01:21 PM)Jpoore Wrote: As a rookie. Against the 2 best pass rushers in the nfl. Or at worst 2 of the 3 in TJ watt and Nick bosa. Averaging what less than 2 pressures a game? And a sack every 2 and a half games? He’s been elite for a rookie.

Well now you're adding clauses, which you didn't initially.

If comparing him to what you would expect/want from a starter, it doesn't matter if they are a rookie or veteran. They need to be able to perform to a certain expectation otherwise it could result in more losses than expected.

(Also, you bring up X number average in a game, which really isn't fair because CLE is a running team. You should be look at it on a per-snap basis because some teams pass far more than others)

But you bring in the rookie clause, which (unless I'm misunderstanding) is you expect him to get (a lot) better in subsequent years.
However, that isn't always the case.

Let's look at Jonah Williams as an example.

His rookie year, he had 429 pass snaps, which is just more than double what Dawand Jones has now (195).
How did Williams do in those 429 pass snaps? - 3 sacks, 20 pressures allowed


If you were to project Dawand Jones on the pace he's going, his numbers for 429 pass block snaps are on pace for... 20 total pressures, 2-3 sacks
Basically he's doing about as well as Jonah did his first season. But Jonah was on the left side whereas Jones is on right, and CLE is (much) more of a rushing offense than CIN was in 2019.

As we know, Jonah never really got better as the years have gone on. He's been about the same as when he started. Typically allowing around 40-45 pressures in a full season.
Us Bengals fans have considered Jonah to allow too many pressures and sacks, which is why he got replaced by someone better and he moved to the right side.

We'll have to see what Dawand Jones ends up doing, but 1) it's not guaranteed he gets better than he is as a rookie (since some don't), and 2) his numbers are naturally gonna be lower because of the offense he plays in.
I'm not saying he's bad, just not elite.