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Brian Callahan going OFF on the offense
#89
(10-18-2023, 06:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Burrow at just 3.6 is averaging half a yard less of air yards per completion than the 2nd least and a full 2.0 yards less than 2022 and 2.8 less than 2021.

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/comp---by-target-depth.html
In 2021 the league average completion % on a pass 3 yards deep was 73%. 4 yards deep was 75%. 

The Fisher Price's My First Dink and Dunk Passing Offense that the Bengals have run this year is inherently inclined towards a very high completion percentage.

It's also worth noting that even if we ignore the fact that dink and dunk passes are way more easily completed (and also gives your OL less opportunity to allow sacks) 65% completion isn't what it used to be. Derek Carr is at 65.0% completion and he's 19th in the NFL... and he's throwing the ball 2.1 air yards further per completion than Burrow.

Burrow's Cmp%+ is 95 (5% below league average) and his Y/A+ is 65 (35% below league average) this year. Inaccurate extreme dink-and-dunk.

Where someone falls in the rankings doesn't mean what they achieved is automatically good or bad.

For example, if you get a 60% on a test but 90% of the class did worse than you, does that mean you did well? No.
Or if you got a 93% on a test but over half the class did better than that, does that mean you did bad? No.

You measure on a static metric, not relative. At least I don't. 65% is good enough in my book. Always will be.

What matters more in this case is what you're also mentioning though - YPA.
Being 65% but only 4 YPA is different if 65% and 7 YPA.
The 65-7 is clearly better.
But what I was responding to was "bad accuracy." If that person thinks 65% is bad, that's on them. But I don't think that's bad.
Zac Taylor 2019-2020: 6 total wins
Zac Taylor 2021-2022: Double-digit wins each season, plus 5 postseason wins
Zac Taylor 2023: 9 wins despite losing Burrow half the season
Zac Taylor 2024: Started 1-4. If he can turn this into a playoff appearance, it will be impressive.

Sorry for Party Rocking!

[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]
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RE: Brian Callahan going OFF on the offense - ochocincos - 10-18-2023, 06:28 PM

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