2024 1st round pick is...

[*ochocincos*]

(10-20-2023, 12:31 AM)puddycat Wrote: 5th year options aren't cheap, coming between 12-18M.This makes the best use for a first round pick to be the safest likely starter on your board regardless of position IMO. The positions where the Bengals are mostly likely to finder a starter late in round 1 are all on the offense. IDK if the Bengals can find a start OT that late, though Sumataia or Paul could both stat later in year 1.

It depends on the position, and these stipulations:

Quote:Starting with the 2018 draft, 5th year options for all 1st round selections took on a very different calculation process. The big deciding factor now? Pro Bowls. The valuation process for the 5th year option is broken down into 4 tiers:


Tier 1: A player is selected to 2+ Pro Bowls in his first three seasons (original ballot placement only)
Tier 2: A player is selected to 1 Pro Bowl in his first three seasons (original ballot placement only)
Tier 3: A player does not garner a Pro Bowl berth, but plays in either 75% of snaps in 2 of 3 seasons, or an average of 50% over all 3
Tier 4: A player does not garner a Pro Bowl berth, nor does he meet the necessary playing time criteria

Here were the 5th year option costs for this season - https://www.spotrac.com/spots/2023-5th-year-option-values-by-player-1422/

Notice how low TE, RB, and safety are.

If Bengals want to have a cheaper 5th year option hit, they may wanna look at TE or RB.
However, you could argue unless you have a strong running game and want a RB as your focal point, you don't wanna even spend the cost of the 5th year option on a RB. And likewise if a TE isn't a big part of your offense.

As of right now, I really do think it's going to be a WR or OL based on upcoming FAs and performance. 
I could maybe see a DT but they'd have to be a pretty prolific pass rusher to justify taking so early. Otherwise I think DT comes in Rds 2-4. Might even see 2 DTs if they aren't happy with Carter's progress by year's end.