11-04-2023, 02:38 PM
Again, those numbers may move a bit. We could have more guys hit IR & have to make new signings which decrease our rollover cap a bit. Maybe we do notctetain a couple signed guys next year and incur some dead cap $$$. Of course, we could also replace some higher salary reseves with cheaper options, too (Carman at over $2 mil). But, for now, let's assume we are where we are now. Somewhere between $71 mil and $87 mil with 17 openings.
I. Working Assumptions.
A. We won't spend big for reserve players.
B. Most/all of our reserve FA will not cost a lot to retain, if we want.
C. Most/all of our draft picks make the team.
D. We generally don't cut guys under contract.
E. To the extent this is wrong, it won't have a large impact on the cap.
Murphy & Carman are our highest paid reserves, the only ones over $2 mil. The average salary of our 18 signed reserves for next year is a smidge over $1.3 mil. We did cut Collins this year, but that is rare.
ADG, Scharping, Ford, and Irwin are probably the priciest potential reserve FAs. I don't see any over $1.5 mil, really. Under $2 mil for all, if we want them.
II. Draft Cap Impacts
We have 9 draft picks and a draft pool salary of $10,726,283. That needs to come off the cap space. For now, assume they are all reserves. They won't be, but humor me.
A. Spotrac Space: $60,532,925. 8 open spots. 7 starters, 1 reserve.
B. OTC Space: $76,032,925. 8 open spots. 7 starters, 1 reserve.
Starting spots open: WR2, WR3, TE, RT, NT, CB1, LS.
III. More Assumptions:
A. Assume DJ Turner steps in for Chido. 6 starters, 2 reserves. Still 8.
B. Assume Adomitis (LS) and the 2 other reserves sign for around the $1.3 mil average, and subtract $4 mil for those 3 spots. 5 spits open
C. New Cap Reality with only 5 open spots: WR2, WR3, TE1, RT, NT.
---Spotrac: 56,532,925
---OTC: $72,032,925
D. Pay Reader & Tag Tee.
Those two are the best of the FAs in my book. The hardest for a rookie to replace right away. Our best run defender and our only proven WR with size.
Worst case, we cannot get a deal done & have to tag Tee, taking a $23 mil cap hit. And Reader's cap hit is $15 mil. That's $38 mil.
Spotrac: $18,532,925.
OTC: $34,032,925.
If you factor in a Chase extension signing bonus ($6 mil) and whatever cushion we want/PS hit (say $7 mil total), things are getting tight. Not enough for Jonah nor Boyd or even Chido. But enough for a decent FA TE, for sure. We'd have to draft a RT and WR3 in this scenario, + a CB4, most likely. But if Reader's hit is only, say, $12 mil, and we get a Higgins deal done with a cap hit of $20 mil, then we likely have enough to bring Boyd/Chido back. Draft RT, TE, and/or CB4.
But look at a rosier OTC cap scenario. Even backing out Chase + some cushion + $4 mil for the PS, we still have $21 mil in space. That's Jonah + a FA TE or Boyd + Chido/TE FA. Heck, if Higgins comes in at $20 and Reader $12 with some creative structuring, we have $27 mil to solve RT, WR3, TE, CB4. That is Jonah +1 for sure, or possibly all the other 3.
Sorry for the length. But my point is, tagging Tee & signing Reader does not cripple us. We are likely looking to fill WR3, TE, RT, and CB4 at that point. We can sign at least one, probably two. Three in a best case scenario.
I. Working Assumptions.
A. We won't spend big for reserve players.
B. Most/all of our reserve FA will not cost a lot to retain, if we want.
C. Most/all of our draft picks make the team.
D. We generally don't cut guys under contract.
E. To the extent this is wrong, it won't have a large impact on the cap.
Murphy & Carman are our highest paid reserves, the only ones over $2 mil. The average salary of our 18 signed reserves for next year is a smidge over $1.3 mil. We did cut Collins this year, but that is rare.
ADG, Scharping, Ford, and Irwin are probably the priciest potential reserve FAs. I don't see any over $1.5 mil, really. Under $2 mil for all, if we want them.
II. Draft Cap Impacts
We have 9 draft picks and a draft pool salary of $10,726,283. That needs to come off the cap space. For now, assume they are all reserves. They won't be, but humor me.
A. Spotrac Space: $60,532,925. 8 open spots. 7 starters, 1 reserve.
B. OTC Space: $76,032,925. 8 open spots. 7 starters, 1 reserve.
Starting spots open: WR2, WR3, TE, RT, NT, CB1, LS.
III. More Assumptions:
A. Assume DJ Turner steps in for Chido. 6 starters, 2 reserves. Still 8.
B. Assume Adomitis (LS) and the 2 other reserves sign for around the $1.3 mil average, and subtract $4 mil for those 3 spots. 5 spits open
C. New Cap Reality with only 5 open spots: WR2, WR3, TE1, RT, NT.
---Spotrac: 56,532,925
---OTC: $72,032,925
D. Pay Reader & Tag Tee.
Those two are the best of the FAs in my book. The hardest for a rookie to replace right away. Our best run defender and our only proven WR with size.
Worst case, we cannot get a deal done & have to tag Tee, taking a $23 mil cap hit. And Reader's cap hit is $15 mil. That's $38 mil.
Spotrac: $18,532,925.
OTC: $34,032,925.
If you factor in a Chase extension signing bonus ($6 mil) and whatever cushion we want/PS hit (say $7 mil total), things are getting tight. Not enough for Jonah nor Boyd or even Chido. But enough for a decent FA TE, for sure. We'd have to draft a RT and WR3 in this scenario, + a CB4, most likely. But if Reader's hit is only, say, $12 mil, and we get a Higgins deal done with a cap hit of $20 mil, then we likely have enough to bring Boyd/Chido back. Draft RT, TE, and/or CB4.
But look at a rosier OTC cap scenario. Even backing out Chase + some cushion + $4 mil for the PS, we still have $21 mil in space. That's Jonah + a FA TE or Boyd + Chido/TE FA. Heck, if Higgins comes in at $20 and Reader $12 with some creative structuring, we have $27 mil to solve RT, WR3, TE, CB4. That is Jonah +1 for sure, or possibly all the other 3.
Sorry for the length. But my point is, tagging Tee & signing Reader does not cripple us. We are likely looking to fill WR3, TE, RT, and CB4 at that point. We can sign at least one, probably two. Three in a best case scenario.
