WTF is happening on 4th downs?

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(11-07-2023, 10:07 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I don't agree with this line of thinking all the time, but I think I have a pretty good idea of what was going through Zac's mind with each decision.


Zac's Brain: "We have a touchdown lead, our defense held them to just 4 plays last drive, it's still early in the 2nd quarter. Let's play field position and trust our defense. A turnover or 3 and out gives us good field position right back and we can start our next drive at an advantage. Going for it here and missing gets them right back into the game."



Zac's Brain: "We are up 11 points and the 3rd quarter is waning. A touchdown on this drive is the dagger that ends the game. This is worth more than playing the field position game because Buffalo will need to score more points in the 4th quarter than they have all game just to tie us at this point. A missed field goal gives them a free first down relative to their position if we go for it, and that's significant in a 1 and a half score game."


Well, they weren't up 17 to 10. They were up 21 to 10. A field goal makes it a full 2 score game. 

Zac's Brain: "There's only 8 minutes left in the game. Getting to 14 points allows our defense to play prevent/time waster style and allow a touchdown without risking a loss to a second touchdown drive via fluke or big play. Every play they call that isn't out of bounds is 20 to 30 seconds off the clock, and we can leverage that by giving them the 8 or 9 yard pass plays, knowing they will spend another down for the 3rd down conversion [which they did twice in that final drive with Latavius Murray]. If we hold them to a 10 play drive that takes 5 minutes off the clock, we'll get it back and will only have to get 1 first down to win the game."

What I guess I'm getting at is Zac doesn't seem to decide on 4th downs based on the likelihood of getting it or the relative field position when the situation comes up. He's looking at the game script, what punting/kicking the field goal vs going for it allows his defense to do and how they've been performing thus far, and makes a gut call. Or at least that's what he seems to do.

I personally like that our coach doesn't just follow analytics to a T. He takes the analytics and blends it with his own judgment and contextual belief in his defense and what they want to do in the following drive.

Blindly following the "win % by decision" analytics is how you get a Brandon Staley.

And no one wants a Brandon Staley.

Great post dawg