12-29-2023, 04:50 PM
Okay, after consuming a lot of holiday food and a considerable quantity of holiday spirits, I set out to determine the paths that will get our beloved Bengals into the playoffs. I might be drunk and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night but, by gosh, I knew that all of that money mom and dad spent on a mathematics degree would pay off someday. Here goes:
The clearest path is to win out. If we win out , we get in the playoffs if any of the following five scenarios happen:
1. A Jags loss AND a Steelers loss ;
2. A Texans loss AND a Steelers loss;
3. A Bills loss AND a Steelers loss ;
4. A Bills loss AND a Jags loss ;
5. A Bills loss , a Colts loss, AND a Texans loss
If we lose to the Chiefs and beat the Browns, we get in the playoffs under any of the following eight scenarios(note that five of these eight require the Bills to lose out) :
1. Steelers lose out , EXACTLY ONE Jags win(must go 1-1) , a Raiders loss , AND a Broncos loss [Easiest path of these eight , imo]
2. Steelers lose out , Jags win out , Texans lose to Titans and win over Colts , a Raiders loss , AND a Broncos loss [Next easiest, imo]
3. Steelers lose out , Jags win out , Texans win over Titans and lose to Colts, Raiders win over Colts , a Broncos loss , AND Bills lose out
4. Steelers lose out , Texans lose out, Bills lose out , AND a Broncos loss
5. Steelers lose out , Texans win out , Bills lose out
6. Steelers lose out, Jags lose out , Texans win out OR lose out , a Raiders loss, AND a Broncos loss
7. Steelers lose out , Jags lose out , Bills lose out , a Raiders loss, AND a Broncos loss
8. Steelers lose out , Bills lose out , a Raiders loss AND a Broncos loss , AND either a Jags , Texans, or Colts loss
NOTE: There are ways we can get in by losing to the Chiefs , without the Steelers losing twice, but ALL of those scenarios require TWO Bills losses , among other things. For example, TWO Bills losses, TWO Steelers wins, EXACTLY ONE Jags win , a Raiders loss, AND a Broncos loss would get us in . I doubt the Bill lose to the Pats AND the Steelers beat the Ravens, so this scenario is very unlikely, imo. Scenarios where the Steelers win one of their last two also require the Bills losing out but are just as unlikely, or maybe more unlikely , than the scenario above where the Steelers win their two games. Hence, I'll disregard those since the likelihood of occurrence is negligible and since I have to take my cat to the vet.
In conclusion, if we win out , we are very likely gonna be in the playoffs . If we lose to the Chiefs and beat the Browns, our best chances for getting in will be scenario #1 or #2 listed above.
We can get in the playoffs by beating the Chiefs and losing to the Browns, as well, but let's don't cross that bridge until we see we have our win at Arrowhead!
Have a happy and blessed 2024!!!
The clearest path is to win out. If we win out , we get in the playoffs if any of the following five scenarios happen:
1. A Jags loss AND a Steelers loss ;
2. A Texans loss AND a Steelers loss;
3. A Bills loss AND a Steelers loss ;
4. A Bills loss AND a Jags loss ;
5. A Bills loss , a Colts loss, AND a Texans loss
If we lose to the Chiefs and beat the Browns, we get in the playoffs under any of the following eight scenarios(note that five of these eight require the Bills to lose out) :
1. Steelers lose out , EXACTLY ONE Jags win(must go 1-1) , a Raiders loss , AND a Broncos loss [Easiest path of these eight , imo]
2. Steelers lose out , Jags win out , Texans lose to Titans and win over Colts , a Raiders loss , AND a Broncos loss [Next easiest, imo]
3. Steelers lose out , Jags win out , Texans win over Titans and lose to Colts, Raiders win over Colts , a Broncos loss , AND Bills lose out
4. Steelers lose out , Texans lose out, Bills lose out , AND a Broncos loss
5. Steelers lose out , Texans win out , Bills lose out
6. Steelers lose out, Jags lose out , Texans win out OR lose out , a Raiders loss, AND a Broncos loss
7. Steelers lose out , Jags lose out , Bills lose out , a Raiders loss, AND a Broncos loss
8. Steelers lose out , Bills lose out , a Raiders loss AND a Broncos loss , AND either a Jags , Texans, or Colts loss
NOTE: There are ways we can get in by losing to the Chiefs , without the Steelers losing twice, but ALL of those scenarios require TWO Bills losses , among other things. For example, TWO Bills losses, TWO Steelers wins, EXACTLY ONE Jags win , a Raiders loss, AND a Broncos loss would get us in . I doubt the Bill lose to the Pats AND the Steelers beat the Ravens, so this scenario is very unlikely, imo. Scenarios where the Steelers win one of their last two also require the Bills losing out but are just as unlikely, or maybe more unlikely , than the scenario above where the Steelers win their two games. Hence, I'll disregard those since the likelihood of occurrence is negligible and since I have to take my cat to the vet.
In conclusion, if we win out , we are very likely gonna be in the playoffs . If we lose to the Chiefs and beat the Browns, our best chances for getting in will be scenario #1 or #2 listed above.
We can get in the playoffs by beating the Chiefs and losing to the Browns, as well, but let's don't cross that bridge until we see we have our win at Arrowhead!
Have a happy and blessed 2024!!!
"Knowledge is preferable to ignorance. Better by far to embrace the hard truth than a reassuring fable. "
---CARL SAGAN
---CARL SAGAN
