01-16-2024, 07:32 PM
My approach would be dictated by where I think our problems are. It could go a lot of ways, depending, but here are my bedrock assumptions & problems.
Problems this year:
1. Defense: poor secondary play led to a lot of mistakes & big plays.
Solution: hope Dax & Turner improve. Battle helped a ton starting for Scott. FA/drafting for depth most likely.
2. Defense: poor run defense.
Solution: bring back Reader. Draft/sign a stand in who is better than Tupou/Tufele. If Sweat falls in my lap Rd2, I take him. Like Jackson Rd3, Jefferson Day 3.
3. Defense: poor pass rush outside of Trey, especially inside.
Solution: aggressively pursue top DT's in FA (Wilkins, Madubuike, Williams). Rd2 DT firmly on table if whiff (Murphy, Jenkins, etc). Rd 3 as well (Davis, Orhorhoro, etc).
4. Offense: Injured/limited/poor QB play made things too predictable.
Solution: Hope ZT learned something. He said he did.
5. Offense: Mediocre OL play.
Solution: draft a Jonah upgrade Rd1. Continued Volson improvement, he got better the 2nd half. Possible FA RT as stopgap to open up draft (Smith, Brown), but likely only possible if we whiff on DTs.
6. Offense: poor TE play.
Solutions: bring Hudson back, he helped a ton. Sample too as TE2/3, he is better than Wilcox. Gotta draft a TE this time. Bowers in Rd1 is likely gone. Ditto Sanders in Rd2. Stover Rd 3 or Johnson or one of the others later. Schultz is the only FA TE I like, & he is likely overpriced.
7. Offense: lack of explosiveness from receivers outside of Chase.
Solutions: Keep Tee. Give Iosivas & Jones more run. Draft a Boyd replacement Rd2-3. Or swap in Shed Jackson for Irwin. If the price is right, I am not opposed to Boyd being back, but he is below Tee, Reader, FA DT, FA OTs, Henry, and Schultz on my shopping list.
8. Special teams: the punter stinks.
Take the kid from Iowa Rd6. Maybe even with the compensatory 5th.
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Here I list my bedrock assumptions that will guide me through this offseason.
1. I am riding with Hill & Turner starting next year. I won't spend big on a FA DB. Depending on how the draft falls, maybe a pick, but Rd 1 is highly doubtful, even Day 2 unlikely. Looking for depth here.
2. I bring Tee & Reader back. Jonah walks.
I have cap space. I don't want to spend big on guys who are NOT difference makers (Jonah). I think Tee & Reader are, when healthy. No way I let Tee walk for nothing, but a pick coming back needs to be in the teens, and this year, for me to consider it, or have more picks attached if later.
Signing Reader means I have, at min, my entire starting Defense pencilled in. FA & draft is then for upgrades (DT) and depth and Reader stand-in while he gets healthy. Tee takes WR2 off the board. Upper part of draft would then (likely) be RT, WR3, TE1 in some order. Though a too good to pass up draft option might push that back (Bowers, Newton, Wiggins/DeJean in Rd1, Sweat in Rd2).
3. Not averse to spending BIG on 1 more FA. But it has to be a real difference maker. I don't want to spend big for marginal improvement. DT is the priority.
Likely, Tee & DJ cost me $30 mil vs the cap next year. Could be $25 if I get favorable deals. Depending on how Tee/DJ go, I can afford a $20 mil guy. Wilkins & Madubuike are muly targets. I think it unlikely either hit the market. Williams is likely cheaper, but also borderline on the difference maker threshold.
4. I aggressively try to get vet guys to restructure/extend to free up more cap space: Burrow, Cappa, Trey, OBJ, Karras, Hilton, BJ Hill.
How much I can free up here, along with how much Tee/DJ cost me, and if I hit on a DT or not, dictate how much I can do from here. I would prioritize thusly:
5. FA OT.
There are two I would consider. Tyrod Smith in Dallas and Trent Brown in NE. Am looking to pay $7-$10 mil here. But I think it is unlikely we land either. Doing so would not prevent me from taking OT in Rd1, and not being able to guarantee either a starting spot makes it unlikely they sign here. And paying big for a reserve OT is not great cap management.
However, there is no guarantee Mims or Fuaga or Latham is there at #18. Having a fallback plan is needed.
Having one of these guys in hand would free us up in Rd1 to take BPA (Bowers, Newton, CB/WR if the OTs are gone) and puts trading back & taking Guyton on the table.
B. Derrick Henry.
I would not cut Mixon for anyone but Henry. Especially since he took a haircut for the team last year & I want to encourage others to follow suit. I'd even consider carrying both if I have the room and Mixon wants to stay. But if you cut Mixon, this could be done for under $5 mil net.
Imagine a scenario on offense where we bring back Tee, take Fuaga in Rd1, draft Sanders in Rd2, and Roman Wilson in Rd 3. If they play 2 deep, Henry feasts. If not, Chase & Burrow do.
C. Cleanup.
It is very unlikely we snag one of the premium DTs. Ditto Smith or Jones at OT without being able to guarantee them a starting spot. We'd now likely be sitting on $20-$25 mil (or more, depending on restructures). RT, WR3, TE1, a Reader stopgap, DT pass rush, and DB depth are all still on the table.
I'd try to take 2-3 of those off the table with what I have left. WR3 (Boyd) and TE1 (Schultz) would be my top targets. I might even bet on a Chido bounce back if the price is right. Then I can go DT/NT or CB/S on day 2 if I want to.
Henry + 1 of the above off the table is also an acceptible outcome.
D. Pass on Chase extension this year.
He does not seem in a rush & if I can spend that $7 mil or so on quality FA's to make us better this year, I will. But it would be better this year to get it done. Save $$ in long run.
Problems this year:
1. Defense: poor secondary play led to a lot of mistakes & big plays.
Solution: hope Dax & Turner improve. Battle helped a ton starting for Scott. FA/drafting for depth most likely.
2. Defense: poor run defense.
Solution: bring back Reader. Draft/sign a stand in who is better than Tupou/Tufele. If Sweat falls in my lap Rd2, I take him. Like Jackson Rd3, Jefferson Day 3.
3. Defense: poor pass rush outside of Trey, especially inside.
Solution: aggressively pursue top DT's in FA (Wilkins, Madubuike, Williams). Rd2 DT firmly on table if whiff (Murphy, Jenkins, etc). Rd 3 as well (Davis, Orhorhoro, etc).
4. Offense: Injured/limited/poor QB play made things too predictable.
Solution: Hope ZT learned something. He said he did.
5. Offense: Mediocre OL play.
Solution: draft a Jonah upgrade Rd1. Continued Volson improvement, he got better the 2nd half. Possible FA RT as stopgap to open up draft (Smith, Brown), but likely only possible if we whiff on DTs.
6. Offense: poor TE play.
Solutions: bring Hudson back, he helped a ton. Sample too as TE2/3, he is better than Wilcox. Gotta draft a TE this time. Bowers in Rd1 is likely gone. Ditto Sanders in Rd2. Stover Rd 3 or Johnson or one of the others later. Schultz is the only FA TE I like, & he is likely overpriced.
7. Offense: lack of explosiveness from receivers outside of Chase.
Solutions: Keep Tee. Give Iosivas & Jones more run. Draft a Boyd replacement Rd2-3. Or swap in Shed Jackson for Irwin. If the price is right, I am not opposed to Boyd being back, but he is below Tee, Reader, FA DT, FA OTs, Henry, and Schultz on my shopping list.
8. Special teams: the punter stinks.
Take the kid from Iowa Rd6. Maybe even with the compensatory 5th.
---------------
Here I list my bedrock assumptions that will guide me through this offseason.
1. I am riding with Hill & Turner starting next year. I won't spend big on a FA DB. Depending on how the draft falls, maybe a pick, but Rd 1 is highly doubtful, even Day 2 unlikely. Looking for depth here.
2. I bring Tee & Reader back. Jonah walks.
I have cap space. I don't want to spend big on guys who are NOT difference makers (Jonah). I think Tee & Reader are, when healthy. No way I let Tee walk for nothing, but a pick coming back needs to be in the teens, and this year, for me to consider it, or have more picks attached if later.
Signing Reader means I have, at min, my entire starting Defense pencilled in. FA & draft is then for upgrades (DT) and depth and Reader stand-in while he gets healthy. Tee takes WR2 off the board. Upper part of draft would then (likely) be RT, WR3, TE1 in some order. Though a too good to pass up draft option might push that back (Bowers, Newton, Wiggins/DeJean in Rd1, Sweat in Rd2).
3. Not averse to spending BIG on 1 more FA. But it has to be a real difference maker. I don't want to spend big for marginal improvement. DT is the priority.
Likely, Tee & DJ cost me $30 mil vs the cap next year. Could be $25 if I get favorable deals. Depending on how Tee/DJ go, I can afford a $20 mil guy. Wilkins & Madubuike are muly targets. I think it unlikely either hit the market. Williams is likely cheaper, but also borderline on the difference maker threshold.
4. I aggressively try to get vet guys to restructure/extend to free up more cap space: Burrow, Cappa, Trey, OBJ, Karras, Hilton, BJ Hill.
How much I can free up here, along with how much Tee/DJ cost me, and if I hit on a DT or not, dictate how much I can do from here. I would prioritize thusly:
5. FA OT.
There are two I would consider. Tyrod Smith in Dallas and Trent Brown in NE. Am looking to pay $7-$10 mil here. But I think it is unlikely we land either. Doing so would not prevent me from taking OT in Rd1, and not being able to guarantee either a starting spot makes it unlikely they sign here. And paying big for a reserve OT is not great cap management.
However, there is no guarantee Mims or Fuaga or Latham is there at #18. Having a fallback plan is needed.
Having one of these guys in hand would free us up in Rd1 to take BPA (Bowers, Newton, CB/WR if the OTs are gone) and puts trading back & taking Guyton on the table.
B. Derrick Henry.
I would not cut Mixon for anyone but Henry. Especially since he took a haircut for the team last year & I want to encourage others to follow suit. I'd even consider carrying both if I have the room and Mixon wants to stay. But if you cut Mixon, this could be done for under $5 mil net.
Imagine a scenario on offense where we bring back Tee, take Fuaga in Rd1, draft Sanders in Rd2, and Roman Wilson in Rd 3. If they play 2 deep, Henry feasts. If not, Chase & Burrow do.
C. Cleanup.
It is very unlikely we snag one of the premium DTs. Ditto Smith or Jones at OT without being able to guarantee them a starting spot. We'd now likely be sitting on $20-$25 mil (or more, depending on restructures). RT, WR3, TE1, a Reader stopgap, DT pass rush, and DB depth are all still on the table.
I'd try to take 2-3 of those off the table with what I have left. WR3 (Boyd) and TE1 (Schultz) would be my top targets. I might even bet on a Chido bounce back if the price is right. Then I can go DT/NT or CB/S on day 2 if I want to.
Henry + 1 of the above off the table is also an acceptible outcome.
D. Pass on Chase extension this year.
He does not seem in a rush & if I can spend that $7 mil or so on quality FA's to make us better this year, I will. But it would be better this year to get it done. Save $$ in long run.
