Reliable Source Says Tee Wants To Stay Here, Likely Tagged

[Whatever]

(01-18-2024, 04:10 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: That seems ligical but misses the point. 

Tee gets less targets because of Chase. The #1 guy on other teams is likely gonna get more targets/yards than any #2. I mean, Curry's PPG went down when the Dubs signed Durant, was Steph less valuable? No. 

Plus, Tee averaged well over 1,000 yards his first 3 years. Over 1,000 the two where Burrow was healthy. And put up 100 per game (close to it) when Chase was out. 

And making Thielen the comparison and then saying age does not matter is flat out silly. He is ancient, HIS contract is certainly affected by it. 

Tee is 20th in the league the last 4 years in receiving yards. 19th amongst WRs (Kelce). And that is sans Burrow for a full year of that time. Plus, of those 19, only 3 have played fewer than Tee's 58 games (Chase, Kupp, Keenan Allen). 

He is a top 15-20 WR. Yeah, the tag is a bit of an overpay (average of top 10), but not a lot. #15 makes $18.3 mil. It starts dropping quickly after that. #19 is $16.1 mil (Hunter Renfrow). 

WR2 's are a double edged sword when it comes to individual production.  They see less targets, but they don't see double coverage as often and usually get don't get lined up against the CB1.  So, they get fewer targets, but they get a boost to their yards/target based on easier matchups.  Higgins has 100+ targets his first three years, good enough for Top 33 each year.  He is not lacking for target share.  Furthermore, he wouldn't be seeing a pretty big chunk of Chase's targets due to the fact that Chase is a three level threat that runs a full route tree and Tee is primarily a threat on intermediate timing routes, like outs, digs, back shoulder fades, come backs, etc.  WR screens, flats, whips, and crossers that Chase runs are not in Tee's skill set(this is a big reason why he's more of a complementary receiver and not a true #1).

Beyond that, if we're trying to determine where Higgins stacks up, why are we making caveats for him being a WR2 and not doing the same for every other WR2 in the league?

Why doesn't this year count?  Why would his miserable 8 Targets for zero catches in the opener against the Browns not count?  Why would his terrible 2 catches on 8 Targets for 21 yards against the Rams not count?  His most recent year is the biggest indicator of what kind of player he currently is.How many of the WR's we're comparing Higgins to have Joe Burrow or an equivalent QB throwing to them at any point in their career?  Are we curving all of them for QB play, as well, or does only Higgins get this benefit?

If we're going to pick and choose, during the second Steelers game this year when Chase was out, Higgins had one catch for 23 yards the first half, then had an 80 yard TD on a busted coverage and racked up some garbage time yards in the blowout for a 140 yard day.  Looks great to fantasy owners, but you really can't say he stepped up on a gotta have it game with Chase out.

We are talking about using the FT on a one year rental for Higgins.  Age doesn't play into that.  Thielen may be ancient, but he could replace that production for one year for a fraction of the cost.  If we're talking long term deal, it matters.  But for one, it doesn't.

So Tee Higgins is a better WR than guys like Nacau, Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Waddle, etc, etc simply because he played all four years of your chosen sample size and they didn't?  That's not good logic at all.