01-19-2024, 04:36 PM
(01-19-2024, 03:37 PM)Whatever Wrote: Have to keep in mind that we only play 6 games in the AFCN and 11 outside of it.
Wilkins was 13th in pass rush win rate among IDL last year while being double teamed on 65% of his pass rush snaps.
Also, keep in mind that the Ravens leading rusher is Lamar Jackson. A big 350 pound 0 tech is actually a liability trying to defend against the read options, QB draws, etc that he makes his living at. You'd rather have a guy with some bend and quick change of direction to defend that.
The Ravens had 541 rushing plays last year. Jackson had 148 of them. And a lot of those are 3rd down scrambles. The idea he is their primary running option is just not true. 148/541 is 27.8%. Again, a lot of those are not designed/called runs and/or on 3rd down passes (when Reader likely is not on the field anyway).
Your post ignores the facts that we play a lot of 5 man fronts in the division. Like I said, I'd love to see Wilkins & Hill flanking Reader. But you need a central NT in that formation. And Tupou cannot do it well & Wilkins cannot do it at all. He's simply too little. The Ravens run up the gut plenty (watch them make a run at Henry).
Your post also seems to ignore what happened this year. We went 8-3 outside the division but still finished dead last because we got pushed around and were winless INSIDE the division until beating the Browns backups. A weaker run defense is gonna be 0'fer the division, again.
Playing Wilkins & Hill together without a run stopper is suicidal in my view. Borderline idiotic.
Gotta bring back Reader or land Sweat in the draft. Him being there at 49 AND being Reader level good is a longshot.
I love Wilkins as a player, but uograding the run D (or at least not getting any worse) is a bigger priority for me than upping the interior pass rush. If I have enough cap to do it AFTER bringing back Tee & Reader (and I think we might), OK. But I need some other restrucures to free up space.
There are some pretty darn good DT prospects lurking in Rd 2 (Murphy, Jenkins, etc). NT is thinner.
I cannot blow all my cap on Wilkins. If I do it, I need the extra cap from restructures to fill another hole (TE1, WR3, CB4, NT filler while Reader gets healthy) or I cut Hill to create it. Or if I get favorable resolutions on Tee/DJ or Boyd/Chido another FA CB/NT that allow me to fit it in, I can do it.
For me, Wilkins cannot be a Reader replacement. He's too small. He is a Hill replacement/upgrade. I think that is pretty straightforward. If so, that creates issues with cap management.
My priorities/our holes, and our roughly $52 mil in funcyltional cap space:
1) WR2: (Higgins): re-sign/tag
2) NT/DT: (Reader): re-sign
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Hopefully I can get that done for around $30 mil. $22 mil or so left.
3) Starting RT: (Jonah): Round 1 draft
4) Starting WR3 (Boyd): round 2-3 draft
5) Starting TE (Irv): Round 2-3 draft/FA
After that, my biggest needs/uogrades are:
6) Better interior pass rush
7) CB depth:
8) NT depth/fill in for Reader
If I blow all my cap on Wilkins, I think I can fill 3 holes with my first 3 picks. I do not feel good about a Day 3 pick being CB4 or my Reader stand in. Though I could live with it.
I'd feel much better if I have enough to plug another hole pre-draft.
It is an interesting discussion. If I can free up $7-$10 mil through restructures, I think I do it. Otherwise, I have to cut Hill.
