02-12-2024, 03:11 PM
(02-12-2024, 01:41 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: I'm sure the 49ers are paying a guy much more than I make to think about this, but I see absolutely no reason to take the ball with these overtime rules.
Your absolute best outcome is scoring a touchdown. Cool, you're up 7 and force the other team to tie. Or you get 3, which is nice, but even then the other team can win with a TD or force true sudden death. In that case it is decent because you get the first possession of sudden death.
However, you can also go three and out and potentially leave a short field where the opponent only has to score 3 to win the game. Or a fumble, or an interception or a bad snap or any other fluke to potentially lose the game on the spot.
I think it boils down in my mind it to the fact that you simply cannot, by definition of the overtime rules, win the game outright if you possess the ball first. If you put your defense out there you can win the game outright with a defensive score. You can put yourself in a high probability win scenario by forcing a turnover or a quick 3 and out and then needing only a field goal. You have a chance to block any potential kick. If your D gives up three you still can win the game on offense, and your offense has the benefit of playing with 4 downs the rest of the way. The team possessing the ball first almost HAS to take 3 if they can, making the play calling more conservative. And worst case scenario you're down seven and need to tie the game, but even then you have the benefit of knowing exactly what you need to do and having 4 downs.
Maybe there's an angle I'm not understanding here. But an oversimplification of probability is # of successful outcomes ÷ # of total outcomes. And I just see more successful outcomes putting your defense on the field first.
For me it's short game vs long game.... if you go first you're not really in 4 down territory at any stage (other than say short yard 4th downs), whereas the 2nd team is in 4th down territory for MOST of their drive if they need it (if KC is 4th & 10 in FG range yesterday, they are kicking it I'd have thought, so it's not a full 4 down drive). Advantage to the team that goes 2nd on this front, I agree.
But long game... if it goes to sudden death, you absolutely want to be the team who went first, as you'll only need a FG drive to win the game. That to me is an enormous advantage, but relies on the game going that far.
Most OT games won't go to sudden death I imagine. This isn't the NHL and OT games 'tend' to reach an end pretty quick, so maybe going first due to the 'sudden death' implications isn't really that meaningful. But I think with yesterday's game... it was a low scoring game with great defence, so it's not that crazy to think they trade FGs on their first drives, and then its huge advantage SF knowing a few first downs wins them the game.
