02-14-2024, 12:52 PM
Alright, sorry for the break, here is the resumption.
III. Functional Cap Space Estimate: $65,922,908.
A. Starting Point: $83,731,303 with 37 signed.
This includes:
1. Signed Starters (19): Burrow, Mixon, Chase, O. Brown, Cappa, Volson, Karras; Hendrickson, Hubbard, BJ Hill, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, Hilton, Battle, D. Hill; McPherson, Robbins.
2. Signed Reserves (+10=29): C. Brown, Iosivas, C. Jones; C. Sample, Murphy, Ossai, Carter, Ivey (Inj), J. Davis, Anderson (Inj).
3. 3. Signed Bubble (+8=37): Evans, Carman, D. Smith, T. Hill; Tufele, Bell, Harper, Scott.
Every guy of those 37 was on the 53 last year and is signed for next. All the reserves (save Scott) and a few of the starters do not move the cap space needle if released & replaced (Robbins). And for the moment assume no big ticket releases happen, as that will likely happen after FA signings, or the draft, if at all.
We have 5 open starting slots at the moment (WR2, WR3, TE, RT, DT) and could also use some CB depth with Chido a FA and Ivey injured. Some spots will be filled by the draft. Let's go ultra conservative and say only the 1st rounder is a starter. So six minus 1 brings us back to 5. Let's build the roster to 48 and see how much cap space we have to fill the other big holes.
B. ERFA's (+2=39): $1,830,000. $81,901,303
These are Adomitis and Browning. They have to take an offer we give them and cannot negotiate with other teams. I can't imagine we let either walk. Could we give Browning a bit more? Sure. But we don't have to. Let's assume not. Both guys make the min ($915,000), so $1,830,000 here for both.
C. Rd1 Pick (+1=40): $2,740,995. $79,160,308
This pick will plug a hole, likely RT. Maybe DT, WR, CB, or TE. We could easily double dip at WR, DT, OL, TE, or DB in FA/draft.
D. Min FAs (+8=48): $8,930,000. $70,230,308
We have another 20 FAs from last year who were on the 53 at some point: Higgins, Reader, Jonah, Boyd, Chido, I. Smith, ADG, Hudson, Irwin, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, T. Williams, Bailey, Bachie, Wilcox, and McCarron. All are UFAs save for possibly 3, who some sites list as RFA's (Hudson, Irwin, Wilcox). I think Hudson is UFA & the other two RFA, but I am by no means certain.
Regardless, I picked 8 guys I think we could get back for a min deal appropriate to their years of service and plugged that # in ($1,125,000 or $1,055,000) to get $8,930,000 for 8 guys: T. Williams, Irwin, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, Bailey, & Bachie. Which brings us to 48 guys with $70.2 mil in space.
I think Hudson & ADG may be worth slightly more, but perhaps not. If so, not by much. I would love to have both back. Particularly Hudson.
With $70.2 million, I think we can make a reasonable run at filling 5 spots, even spending big on two, or even 3 (Tee, DJ + big fish FA DT/DB). Heck, if we think a Day 2 pick can plug a hole or two, we could fit a more expensive Hudson/ADG in there as well if the 4th & 5th FA's are reasonably priced or if Hudson/ADG are in dospacement territory. That would put all the draft picks in displacement territory. In aggregate, Rd2 thru Rd7, we have 8 picks which will have a negligible cap effect.
Two more things.
E. Practice Squad: $4,307,400. $65,922,908
In the offseason, the PS does not count vs the cap, as it does not really exist, you just can sign up to 90 guys. They count as min players up to that point (our Future's guys, for instance).
Guys with less than 2 seasons of accrued service make $12,500 per week on the PS. Times 18 weeks is $225,000. All 9 Future's guys are in this category (Jackson, Lassiter, Pryor, Gilliam, Kirkland, Gunter, D. Davis, Heyward, George), as are Cochran & Maxwell. As would any picks.
Vets on the PS make more (M. Thomas, S. Jimes, etc) and can negotiate between $16,800 and $21,300 per week. Or $302,400 to $383,400 per year.
Say we max out in vet PS guys at 6. Say they make the average of their possible salaries per week ,($19,050). $342,900 per year. Times 6. $2,057,400. Plus 10 guys at $225,000 is $2,250,000. For a total of $4,307,400.
That leaves us $65,922,908 with a full PS & 8 draft picks, & FA to fill out the roster. Actually, 5 open PS spits to be filled, but those will likely be displaced guys.
This hypothetical roster would be:
Offense = 20
QB: Burrow, Browning (ERFA)
RB: Mixon, C. Brown, Evans, T. Williams (UFA)
WR: Chase; Iosivas, C. Jones, Irwin (R/UFA?)
TE: D. Sample (UFA)
OT: O. Brown, Carman, D. Smith, Ford (UFA)
OG: Cappa, Volson, Scharping (UFA)
C: Karras, T. Hill
----------
Defense = 23.
DE: Hendrickson, Hubbard, Murphy, C. Sample, Ossai
DT: BJ Hill; Carter, Tufele, Tupou (UFA)
LB: Wilson, Pratt, Harper, Bailey (UFA), Bachie (UFA)
CB: CTB, Turner, Hudson, Ivey (Inj), J. Davis
S: Battle, D. Hill, Scott, Anderson (Inj)
----------
Special Teams = 3
PK: McPherson
P: Robbins
LS: Adomitis (ERFA)
--------
Rd1 pick #18 = 1.
Practice Squad/Futures = 11.
1. Jackson, WR (Fut)
2. Lassiter, WR (Fut)
3. Pryor, WR (Fut)
4. Kirkland, OT/OG (Fut)
5. Gilliam, OF/C (Fut)
6. Gunter, DE (Fut)
7. D. Davis, DT (Fut)
8. Heyward, LB (Fut)
9. George, CB (Fut)
10. Cochran, OT
11. Maxwell, DT
Again, the 2 ERFA's are gimmees. Chronologically, the MIN guys probably happen later, or even pkst draft. But all 8 I selected have all demonstrated some ability to be playable for us, and should be relatively easy to sign. And also be prime vet PS candidates if they get bumped by a FA or draft pick.
Our unsigned FA would be:
1. Higgins, WR
2. Reader, DT/NT
3. J. Williams, OT
4. Boyd, WR
5. Awuzie, CB
6. Hudson, TE (RFA?)
7. ADG, LB
8. Wilcox, TE
9. McCarron, QB
10. I. Smith, TE
I signed 10 of our own FAs in this exercise, who will be added back in the position specific posts that will follow: Browning (ERFA), Adomitis (ERFA), T. Williams (UFA), Irwin (RFA?), D. Sample (UFA), Ford (UFA), Scharping (UFA), Tupou (UFA), Bailey (UFA), and Bachie (UFA).
III. Functional Cap Space Estimate: $65,922,908.
A. Starting Point: $83,731,303 with 37 signed.
This includes:
1. Signed Starters (19): Burrow, Mixon, Chase, O. Brown, Cappa, Volson, Karras; Hendrickson, Hubbard, BJ Hill, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, Hilton, Battle, D. Hill; McPherson, Robbins.
2. Signed Reserves (+10=29): C. Brown, Iosivas, C. Jones; C. Sample, Murphy, Ossai, Carter, Ivey (Inj), J. Davis, Anderson (Inj).
3. 3. Signed Bubble (+8=37): Evans, Carman, D. Smith, T. Hill; Tufele, Bell, Harper, Scott.
Every guy of those 37 was on the 53 last year and is signed for next. All the reserves (save Scott) and a few of the starters do not move the cap space needle if released & replaced (Robbins). And for the moment assume no big ticket releases happen, as that will likely happen after FA signings, or the draft, if at all.
We have 5 open starting slots at the moment (WR2, WR3, TE, RT, DT) and could also use some CB depth with Chido a FA and Ivey injured. Some spots will be filled by the draft. Let's go ultra conservative and say only the 1st rounder is a starter. So six minus 1 brings us back to 5. Let's build the roster to 48 and see how much cap space we have to fill the other big holes.
B. ERFA's (+2=39): $1,830,000. $81,901,303
These are Adomitis and Browning. They have to take an offer we give them and cannot negotiate with other teams. I can't imagine we let either walk. Could we give Browning a bit more? Sure. But we don't have to. Let's assume not. Both guys make the min ($915,000), so $1,830,000 here for both.
C. Rd1 Pick (+1=40): $2,740,995. $79,160,308
This pick will plug a hole, likely RT. Maybe DT, WR, CB, or TE. We could easily double dip at WR, DT, OL, TE, or DB in FA/draft.
D. Min FAs (+8=48): $8,930,000. $70,230,308
We have another 20 FAs from last year who were on the 53 at some point: Higgins, Reader, Jonah, Boyd, Chido, I. Smith, ADG, Hudson, Irwin, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, T. Williams, Bailey, Bachie, Wilcox, and McCarron. All are UFAs save for possibly 3, who some sites list as RFA's (Hudson, Irwin, Wilcox). I think Hudson is UFA & the other two RFA, but I am by no means certain.
Regardless, I picked 8 guys I think we could get back for a min deal appropriate to their years of service and plugged that # in ($1,125,000 or $1,055,000) to get $8,930,000 for 8 guys: T. Williams, Irwin, D. Sample, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, Bailey, & Bachie. Which brings us to 48 guys with $70.2 mil in space.
I think Hudson & ADG may be worth slightly more, but perhaps not. If so, not by much. I would love to have both back. Particularly Hudson.
With $70.2 million, I think we can make a reasonable run at filling 5 spots, even spending big on two, or even 3 (Tee, DJ + big fish FA DT/DB). Heck, if we think a Day 2 pick can plug a hole or two, we could fit a more expensive Hudson/ADG in there as well if the 4th & 5th FA's are reasonably priced or if Hudson/ADG are in dospacement territory. That would put all the draft picks in displacement territory. In aggregate, Rd2 thru Rd7, we have 8 picks which will have a negligible cap effect.
Two more things.
E. Practice Squad: $4,307,400. $65,922,908
In the offseason, the PS does not count vs the cap, as it does not really exist, you just can sign up to 90 guys. They count as min players up to that point (our Future's guys, for instance).
Guys with less than 2 seasons of accrued service make $12,500 per week on the PS. Times 18 weeks is $225,000. All 9 Future's guys are in this category (Jackson, Lassiter, Pryor, Gilliam, Kirkland, Gunter, D. Davis, Heyward, George), as are Cochran & Maxwell. As would any picks.
Vets on the PS make more (M. Thomas, S. Jimes, etc) and can negotiate between $16,800 and $21,300 per week. Or $302,400 to $383,400 per year.
Say we max out in vet PS guys at 6. Say they make the average of their possible salaries per week ,($19,050). $342,900 per year. Times 6. $2,057,400. Plus 10 guys at $225,000 is $2,250,000. For a total of $4,307,400.
That leaves us $65,922,908 with a full PS & 8 draft picks, & FA to fill out the roster. Actually, 5 open PS spits to be filled, but those will likely be displaced guys.
This hypothetical roster would be:
Offense = 20
QB: Burrow, Browning (ERFA)
RB: Mixon, C. Brown, Evans, T. Williams (UFA)
WR: Chase; Iosivas, C. Jones, Irwin (R/UFA?)
TE: D. Sample (UFA)
OT: O. Brown, Carman, D. Smith, Ford (UFA)
OG: Cappa, Volson, Scharping (UFA)
C: Karras, T. Hill
----------
Defense = 23.
DE: Hendrickson, Hubbard, Murphy, C. Sample, Ossai
DT: BJ Hill; Carter, Tufele, Tupou (UFA)
LB: Wilson, Pratt, Harper, Bailey (UFA), Bachie (UFA)
CB: CTB, Turner, Hudson, Ivey (Inj), J. Davis
S: Battle, D. Hill, Scott, Anderson (Inj)
----------
Special Teams = 3
PK: McPherson
P: Robbins
LS: Adomitis (ERFA)
--------
Rd1 pick #18 = 1.
Practice Squad/Futures = 11.
1. Jackson, WR (Fut)
2. Lassiter, WR (Fut)
3. Pryor, WR (Fut)
4. Kirkland, OT/OG (Fut)
5. Gilliam, OF/C (Fut)
6. Gunter, DE (Fut)
7. D. Davis, DT (Fut)
8. Heyward, LB (Fut)
9. George, CB (Fut)
10. Cochran, OT
11. Maxwell, DT
Again, the 2 ERFA's are gimmees. Chronologically, the MIN guys probably happen later, or even pkst draft. But all 8 I selected have all demonstrated some ability to be playable for us, and should be relatively easy to sign. And also be prime vet PS candidates if they get bumped by a FA or draft pick.
Our unsigned FA would be:
1. Higgins, WR
2. Reader, DT/NT
3. J. Williams, OT
4. Boyd, WR
5. Awuzie, CB
6. Hudson, TE (RFA?)
7. ADG, LB
8. Wilcox, TE
9. McCarron, QB
10. I. Smith, TE
I signed 10 of our own FAs in this exercise, who will be added back in the position specific posts that will follow: Browning (ERFA), Adomitis (ERFA), T. Williams (UFA), Irwin (RFA?), D. Sample (UFA), Ford (UFA), Scharping (UFA), Tupou (UFA), Bailey (UFA), and Bachie (UFA).
