Elly DLC @ SS

[CJD]

(02-20-2024, 01:26 PM)dxdtdemon Wrote: McLain is a better fielder, so should be the everyday SS. Elly needs some time in Louisville to learn better plate discipline. He strikes out as much as Drew Stubbs did, and both of them were able to hit the ball far and steal bases to try to make fans overlook all of their deficiencies.

(02-21-2024, 01:18 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: I also don't get this move. I didn't read much beyond the headline. Did they explain why?

Elly seems like a corner outfielder for his skill set; RF and his arm, as you said, match perfectly. Is this more of an attempt to hype the guy from a marketing angle? Elly, the next great Reds SS to follow the likes of Concepcion and Larkin. He's a marketable player and SS is the 'it factor' position.

(02-21-2024, 02:40 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yes perhaps that's it? Next star SS? I dunno

But as been stated by myself and others in various threads. McClain is just a better SS when you consider everything. Why not try Elly in RF and see how he fares? With Friedl in CF and Elly in right there is some damn good speed out there running down fly balls. Cutting off line drives and getting the ball back in the infield quick.

Yes with Steer in LF it would cut down on opportunity for Benson, Fraley, and even India in OF but you gotta give these hot youngins some time to learn and improve.

I think Elly's gone all the way from overrated by Reds fans to underrated by Reds fans in less than 1 full season.

He has plenty of room to improve as a fielder, especially at shortstop, but this narrative that he doesn't belong at shortstop and McLain should take his place, moving him to RF is...dubious in its merits based on the evidence we have available to us.

According to statcast, Elly played Shortstop for 591 innings during his rookie year. In those 591 innings, he had a 76% success rate in the 262 attempts he had fielding the ball. Overall, he accounted for 1 out above average (similar to WAR for fielding. How many more outs he created than the average defender would have).
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/elly-de-la-cruz-682829?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

McLain played shortstop for 465 innings during his rookie year. In those 465 innings, he also had a 76% success rate in the 174 attempts he had fielding the ball. Overall, he accounted for 2 outs above average at SS.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-mclain-680574?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb

There really isn't that much of a difference between them in terms of the results of their playing the position. At least not in their rookie years. 

I think what people aren't giving Elly credit for is that, if you look at each player's chart of attempts in the field, they color code the attempts based on how many OAA the player achieved in any given attempt . Red is good, blue is bad and white is neutral. Elly's chart has more dark boxes, both red and blue, than McLain's, meaning Elly was making some phenomenal plays and some really bad plays, whereas McLain was making mostly "expected" plays with no phenomenal or horrendous plays.
Elly
McLain


But where Elly created his most negative run value, on plays in the gap between the SS and 3B, he and McLain had identical -2 OAAs.

The big difference between Elly and McLain is that, if Elly cuts down on the negative plays, he will be a vastly superior shortstop to McLain, whereas McLain probably will never be more than a roughly average shortstop.

Elly's average throw velocity from the SS position was 95.1 mph. McLain's was 86.4.

If he can harness that arm strength, cut down on errors and increase his range to his right side (which is, statistically, the most difficult gap to cover in all of baseball), he could be a gold glover, easily. That may sound like a silly thing to say, but he was only 21 last season, compared to 24 for McLain. I think it's reasonable to believe one can become a better fielder if they reach the majors this young.

The one thing I will say in defense of keeping McLain at SS is that Elly is, statistically, a vastly superior 3B than SS at the moment. He had an OAA of 3 at 3B and produced higher run values than McLain, likely mostly at 3B. He also only had 1 of his 14 errors at 3B, compared to 13 at SS. 

But they needed to make room for Marte, who is a bat first player. He plays 3B now, but he started as a shortstop before bulking out of the position. If he continues to bulk as he gets older (he's only 22), he may not even be suitable for 3B, much like CES bulked out of 3B. Rumors are that's why Seattle was willing to trade him. They were worried he would eventually need to move to 1B or LF. The bat is definitely worth it, but he was no longer considered "untouchable" once his position began to flux down.

Basically, what I'm saying is that if we move anyone to the outfield, it should probably be Marte haha.