02-29-2024, 03:26 PM
(02-29-2024, 02:18 AM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Where do you get December from?
I do think you are right about needing a NT at camp. But we can always bring Tupou back. Davis & Maxwell are both under contract. Tufele is signed and can play some nose.
To be frank, I think he'll be back well before December. Last time, he tore his quad on 10/11/20. Week 5. He played 48 snaps week 1 in 2021, 9/12. That's 11 months. He was in camp, practicing in August. 10 months. He played in the first pre-season game.
https://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/reader-expects-to-play-in-bengals-preseason-opener/7KHVJG4TUVFSRH73NHYR5B4NXA/
This time, he said it is going easier. I'd put 10 months at the outside. He got hurt 12/16. 10 months would be 10/16. That is week 6. Likely sooner. I think opening day is probably fanciful, mid to late September? Early October? I think that is not only doable, but probable.
Of course, he has a long way to go, but he is 3 months out of surgery and into rehab. We'll have a decent feel for it. If there was gonna be a major issue, I think we'd have seen it already. But he will miss some time.
Even so, we won't pay big $$$ for a NT in FA. One, because other than DJ, there are not any out there worth the $$$. Two, because if we land a good DT in FA (Williams, Rankins, etc) or draft one, we can scrape by with that + Tupou/Day 3 pick until DJ gets back. Ideal? Certainly not.
And IF Reader is back, and it sure sounded that way from Duke & ZT talking, we won't spend a high pick on a NT type with all the other holes/needs: RT, DT, WR, TE, CB, S, and P would all be above NT at that point. Maybe IOL too.
I get the concern, but NT2 is a ways down on my list. Starting NT, high priority.
1. WR2: Higgins, check.
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2. NT: Reader
3. RT: Most likely #18 but would pursue Smith & Onwenu in FA.
4. DT-3T disruptor: pursue elite & near elite FAs (Jones, Wilkins, Williams). #18 only if OT solved in FA. Rd2 or Rd3 certainly in play.
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5. WR3. Solution could be on team already. Boyd for value in play. Or any cheap FA. Most likely Rd2-Rd3 pick. Deep WR class.
6. DB help. CB4 or S help. Or both. Depending on space after Reader and what happens at DT/OT in FA, I'd swing for fences here in FA (Johnson, Sneed, Winfield). Success very unlikely. Lot of good S guys in FA, would allow Hill to CB. Chido for value in play for me.
7. TE1. I bring Sample & Hudson back. Wilcox probably too, at least to camp. I don't like the FA class, and overpaying for Schultz scares me since he is head & shoulders above the rest. Likely Rd2-Rd4 pick.
That is 7 spots counting CB & S. If big swings connect, I figure we could sign Reader + $20 mil guy (Wilkins, Winfield, Johnson types) + $15 mil guy (Onwenu, Williams types). More if we do some restructuring/creative cap hit stuff.
Then the top 4 picks write themselves.
Heck, I'd rather spend big on an IOL FA (VOlson upgrade) or Townsend at P before NT2.
I've run a ton of mocks. The only times I take a NT high & end up liking it have been:
1) We trade back from #18 to early 20s because Fuaga & Latham are gone to take Guyton or Mims (and it works) & get an extra 2nd or 3rd & I get Sweat or Jackson.
2) I assume a goldilocks FA scenario where DT is off the board. Along with RT or multiple other slots (Schultz + Chido, Chido & Boyd, Bell & Chido, etc).
Or both.
It is not out of the question. I do like Sweat a lot. But him being there at #49 is unlikely and I certainly do not let DJ walk on the chance he will be. Once I make the decision to bring DJ back, then a high NT pick feels like overkill.
KillerGoose in the thread about Burrow, Chase, Hubbard and Reader being at the Suns/Lakers game...
He shown examples that said it might be as late as December before Reader is 100% and ready to go again. I do like that we still have
Davis and especially Maxwell still on the team, Maxwell's numbers in college were staggering in terms of Sacks and pressures. Maybe he
might be the answer at 3-tech for all we know, but we still need to bring in a couple DT's. I like Tufele, but was disappointed in Tupou
and Carter last year.
I agree with most of what you say here and hope you are right and KillerGoose's post is wrong and DJ is back way sooner than December.
McKinnley Jackson is my backup in the 2nd round as well if Sweat goes before then. I like your thought of trading back if Fuaga or Latham
are not there at 18.
