06-11-2015, 10:19 AM
(06-11-2015, 10:03 AM)RoyleRedlegs Wrote: Once a RB hits around 1800 carries in their career and 27 years old there starts a steep trend downward.
Marshawn Lynch (29) has over 2000 carries.
LeSean McCoy (will be 27 when season starts) is within one season of that.
Matt Forte (29) is over it
Also, when a RB hits 370 carries in a season tend to face another sharp decline.
DeMarco Murray (27) had 392 last year.
Links: http://www.footballdocs.com/running_back_carries.html
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27
Plenty of reasoning to expect fall offs for some if not all of these players.
I'd be willing to put money on Lynch still looking like the most physically dominant RB in the game this coming season and that Forte puts up a large amount of yards from scrimmage.
McCoy and Murray are tough calls, but if Murray was still behind the Dallas line I'd bet the house on him as well.
Regardless, even if those guys all fall of a cliff...
I still think it's absurd to put a guy that hasn't had 1 yard from scrimmage in the pros at #7. Most QBs don't play well into their late 30's where a lot of the elite guys are right now, and I'd think putting Mariota or Winston in the top 10 would be stupid as well. Rookies don't belong in the top 10 of positional rankings IMO.
