01-04-2016, 06:54 AM
(01-01-2016, 10:54 PM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: I'm wondering how people feel about the argument of "playoff teams" as a way of legitimizing the Bengals season this year. One thing in particular that seems to be coming up around here in various arguments is the loss to the Houston Texans. Obviously there are fans divided on the argument. Some say the loss to them was a bad loss, others say it's not that bad of a loss because the Texans are a "Playoff team". I feel like this type of argument can be very misleading because it ignores two very important things.
First off.... just because a team goes to the playoffs does not mean that they are necessarily a "good" team. As a matter of fact, if it wasn't for the NFL rule that a team from each division gets to go to the playoffs, then the Texans wouldn't even be in the playoffs right now. They would have been knocked out by the Steelers.... But since the Texans are the leader of their division right now they get to go to the playoffs as it currently stands. It's something that has been an issue with fans for a long time...
The 2010 NFL season is a great example of this actually because a lot of people complained about it. It's the same year that Marshawn Lynch ended up having his game saving Beast Mode touchdown against the Saints to win their playoff game. But the funny thing about it is that the Seahawks were only in the playoffs to begin with because of the technicality of the NFL rule regarding divisional winners. That year there were 3 other teams that had better records than the Seahawks, but the Seahawks got to go to the playoffs because they won their division with a 7-9 record. The three other teams that had better records than them that didn't get to go to the playoffs that year were the New York Giants/Tampa Bay Buccaneers (both 10-6) and the San Diego Chargers (9-7).
So does this mean that those teams weren't good because they didn't get to go to the playoffs but the 7-9 Seahawks did? Of course not, nor does it mean they're good teams vice versa. People need to stop looking at this as "Team (whoever) made it to the playoffs, so that means they're a good team/it wasn't a bad loss". There's so many variables you have to look at besides the fact that they made it to the playoffs.
A team can be good for a few weeks but then be terrible for the rest of the season. This means that just because a team beats the Patriots in week 2 or 3, doesn't mean that they are automatically a "good" team just as losing to the Patriots wouldn't make them a bad team either. They could be having a rough start, they could have injuries, they could have personnel issues etc... The main point is that you have to look at the meat and bones of the situation rather than just the outside of it, ie "They made it to the playoffs, thus they are a good team" or "They beat so and so that week, so that makes them the better team". A team could make it to the playoffs and lose their starting quarterback and get lose their first playoff game. Does that mean they were a bad team? No, they lost their starting QB for crying out loud... Teams change throughout the season, coaches change throughout the season, injuries happen, bad ref calls happen, basically.... a lot happens throughout the season to determine who are the greats and who are the not so greats. Just look at the Kansas City Chiefs this year. They won their first game of the season against the Texans and then lost their next 5 straight and people were laughing at them. Then they rebounded and have now won their last 9 games. Does that make them a good team or not? I dunno, you tell me.
I get what you are saying but it isn't so simplistic.
The NFL is overflowing with talent and even the bad teams have good or even great players.
Not only that but there are many factors that go into every game that will dictate the outcome of the game, which is why you hear people say "on paper" when referring to a team winning. Weather, individual efforts (both good and bad), referees, game plans and even shear dumb luck. Yep sometimes the ball just happens to bounce a certain way.
For example, the Browns vs Ravens. All statistics at the end of the game would have favored the Browns to win that game. Sure the FG was a little long but it was still withing range of an NFL kicker. With so little time left on the clock, this had the highest probability of a Brown victory, the range put gave it a less likely probability of OT, and the least likely probability of a blocked kicked returned for a TD. We all know the outcome, but before hand it was a Browns victory.
Game plans are also a factor. Mark Cuban ripped Skip Bayless for suggesting that Lebron James failure is why the Mavericks beat them in the NBA championship game. His point was that Lebron played like Lebron, what the Mavs did was game plan to force Lebron to play a certain way. The same thing with the NFL, the Patriots are known for shutting down what teams do best, so they game plan to force teams to play certain ways. If a team is a good or great run team, then they will sell out to stop the run and force you to throw the ball. If the team is great at passing, then they will force you to run the ball. Even if you are a great passing team, you usually only need to take away 1 or 2 players to become only mediocre. The Patriots would force us to run the ball or have to target Sanu or Jones. Not only would they force us to either run or target lessor WRs, they will usually have a plan to make the players that we do have to target play in a way that they don't do so well with, IE get YAC, break to the outside, make the QB throw deep or even short.
Officiating. Yep, it can be terrible and sometimes it can be beneficial. Just depends on the team that is getting called for the penalty vs the team that isn't getting called or got the PI called. Sometimes the timing of the call is what leads to the benefit. A team can get every call to go their way, never get called once for PI or holding or even personal foul. Yet on that last drive the flag comes out and it is a killer, so instead of a 4th down stop to seal the game it is now 1st and goal on the 1 yard line and they only need a FG to win. Instead of converting that 4th and 1, a hold call now makes it 4th and 11. As fans we only see the ones that hurt us more than the ones that help us. We also see our hated rivals get more calls in their favor.
Individual effort. Looking at the Texans game, it is plainly evident that the biggest surprise of having a down game was Eifert. Would you or anyone else have thought that he would drop 3 passes and run the wrong route? Green has had some fumbling issues late in the game, but he is still less likely to cough up the ball in that situation. Even MLJ got into the act of not playing DB on the INT, he gave up on the ball and Joseph got the easy pick, however MLJ did make the tackle so he finished the play, but normally he prevents the INT but for some reason he didn't on that play. There are plenty of reasons for this to occur. Nerves, overconfidence, underestimating your opponent, maybe Eifert got news (good or bad) that distracted him, maybe Green was thinking about making a big play even bigger by shaking off some tacklers and getting into the endzone, and maybe MLJ got blinded by the lights and lost track of the football.
Weather. Face it, both teams have to play in the weather, but weather and field turf play a huge factor in winning or losing a game. Having the rain come down harder against the Patriots sure assisted in us securing a win. Likewise, Denver got the benefit of poor weather when they played NE this year. The turning point in that game was the muffed punt, and the weather doesn't help someone trying to catch a freezing cold ball that is slick with the snow or moisture in the air. This is part of the luck factor in the game. However you can practice and game plan around the weather, even if it isn't a guarantee to be successful.
So yes, "playoff team" can be misleading. The Panthers have the best record in the NFL, and a lot of people think they are a good team because of it. However, some factors that have helped them is the above as well as getting the AFC S, the NFC E and the NFC S, now I would say these are all NFL teams and that they could beat any team they face if all of the above factors go their way. However, a few of the Panthers games had a few of the above go the Panthers way, which led to their record. Compound that with playing teams that lack players that will give a consistent individual effort (OBJ, Matt Ryan) to teams that get flagged more often than others (Saints Defense) and shear dumb luck (Cowboys injuries) and that is a recipe for success. Now if the Panthers had to play a team like the Steelers, Patriots and Seahawks and even our Bengals, then they wouldn't have been as successful as they have had this year.
