Bengals say willing to trade Higgins for right offer,

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-24-2024, 10:55 PM)Shouldamapads Wrote: I’ve said this before-  the number of 1st round draft pics that actually work out is less than 50%. After the first round, about 25 to 30% workout. Trading a known for an unknown doesn’t always equate to production. Take John Ross the fourth pick of the draft that was an absolute bust. there’s lots of examples just like this one. Higgins is a big number but he’s a known. Quit acting like he’s so simple to just replace with somebody in the draft because that is not the case at all. Aside, wr isn’t a high need with him on our roster.

Ignoring the last two years because not enough of a sample size yet. From 2021 (so 3 year sample size in the NFL) to 2017 (a 5 year window).... 10 out of 17 WRs drafted in the 1st round have had a 1k season. That's nearly 60%. We've seen Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith all be drafted in the 1st in that time. All of those guys would be ranked higher than Tee, and you get them on the cheap for years.

Ross was the 9th overall pick. The Bengals have been pretty good at top-5 picks in the 21st century after struggling so hard at it in the 90s.

Here are some other knowns about Higgins...
He will get banged up and miss time at some point in the season. 
He doesn't want to be here. (Will he play while at 80% like he has in the past if it jeopardizes his offseason payday?)
He will walk in the offseason and only bring us a 2026 3rd round comp pick, the current equivalent value of a 2024 5th round comp pick.

We will then have to find a rookie WR in 2025 instead, so all you'd be doing is pushing the decision forward a year while giving yourself less resources (money and picks both) to do it with and saddling yourself with a potential malcontent.