Trading Down in 1st/2nd Round

[Whatever]

(03-26-2024, 02:12 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: I'm wondering if they are getting away from having a traditional nose tackle if this is the case. Or maybe they are confident enough with someone on the roster to fill that role. 

I don't see Sweat being there at pick 49. I give it a 5% chance. 



I don't think the success of the draft hinges on drafting Sweat, but I think it would fill a large hole and certainly make our draft better than if we don't draft him. There isn't anyone else like him in the draft. Sure, we can find a day 3 NT--but we've tried that before and they never pan out.

Pick 49 is a spot I am just not very confident in us getting a good player unless we reach. It seems like there's a lot more value in the 3rd/4th rounds. In other words, it doesn't seem like there is much difference in the quality of the players from pick 49 into the 3rd round.

And then if you look at the bottom of the 1st/top of the 2nd, the value is a lot better in terms of who is there is to pick from. As soon as you get past pick 40 or so it drops off. And it could drop off much sooner than that.

So it's a question of whether you would like to get (1) good player at 18 and basically a 3rd round pick at 49. Or would you rather get two good players at 27 and 35?

I'm not saying Arizona wants to make the trade. I'd rather have their draft position if I were them. But trading down in general could be a good strategy is the players we want aren't there at 18. Who knows, we could see a player drop that doesn't fit a need of ours but it fits a need of theirs or another team.

I'm not necessarily against Sweat at #49, but I think people's expectations are out of hand with him.  He projects as a NT, but Murphy actually lined up more as the NT for the Longhorns than Sweat did.   Due to his weight and conditioning issues, he will have to be subbed heavily to really get much out of him, especially as a rookie.  And he seems to be this year's draft prospect that everyone just has to have and overrated to the point where they convince themselves that there's no way he'll be there around the slot they're graded at.

Personally, there's plenty of good prospects I would love to have at #49 that probably won't be available later.  Frazier, Beebe, Paul, Pearsall, Polk, Fiske, Jenkins, Benson, etc.  Not saying I wouldn't entertain a trade, but I wouldn't be desperate to.