04-14-2024, 08:52 AM
It is interesting how much a simulation can change just with the simple change of a first round selection. I ran these simulations back to back changing up the first round selection for the Bengals and this is how they ended up. Which would you like better? Can you not stand either of them? Would you be happy with either of them?
Simulation 1:
RD. 1 – 18th Overall:
Quinyon Mitchell – CB – Toledo – 6’0” 195
With this selection Brock Bowers and Byron Murphy were both still on the board. However, when looking at BPA in accordance with greatest need I felt as if Mitchell by far fit the best. The Bengals are dangerously thin at CB in a passing league. They have CTB and Turner on the outside and Hilton in the slot. Outside of that they have Ivey, whose availability to start the season is in question, to go with Allan George and Jalen Davis. An injury to any of the top 3 could be detrimental. Another question could be is Turner more suited to be outside or in the slot as the heir apparent to Hilton?
In Mitchell you get a corner that checks every single box for a standout NFL corner, and he tops it with elite speed. Some may point to him playing in the MAC but he put on a clinic at the Senior Bowl matching up with all of the top receivers there. I would not be shocked at all to see Mitchell displace Turner on opening day as a boundary starter across from Taylor-Britt. He is a physical corner that is well built and plays with good technique.
Mitchell is a real value selection for the Bengals at #18 and helps to solidify the CB position for them after the loss of Awuzie.
RD. 2 – 49th Overall:
Braden Fiske – DT – Fla. State – 6’4” 292
Fiske does not sport great length and size but what he does have is elite explosiveness, work ethic, and a motor that never shuts down. The slightest delay by a lineman will severely cost them against Fiske. Fiske has very active hands that generate pretty good pop and that paired with his explosiveness can create real problems for offensive linemen. I do have concerns about his length, but he seems to have learned how to play within his stature and make it work for him. Should make for an explosive combination with Rankins, especially on passing downs.
RD. 3 – 80th Overall:
Blake Fisher – OT – Notre Dame – 6’6” 310
With the FA signing of Trent Brown the Bengals positioned themselves with not having to take an OT in the first round. However, they lucked out and grabbed a fringe first round talent in the third round. There is an argument to be made that in many other drafts Blake Fisher is a first round selection all day long. One NFL personnel executive went as far as to state that Fisher comes with more natural talent than Alt but the outstanding technique of Alt puts him ahead of Fisher. Fisher has a season to hone technique and become more consistent while learning from two of the top OTs in the game right now.
RD. 3 – 97th Overall:
Javon Baker – WR – UCF – 6’1” 202
Baker is just a complete receiver that is mature in his ability and technique and who has a legit opportunity to see early playing time and to be impactful in doing so. He plays a brand of football that translates extremely well to the transition to the pro game. While he may not be elite in any one area, he is good and solid in all of them. Baker understands how to play the WR position and is QB friendly. This is a great grab for the Bengals in overall value and he should immediately help to fill the gap the Bengals may feel from losing Boyd to free agency. A solid weapon for Burrow to exploit.
RD. 4 – 115th Overall:
Ben Sinnott – TE – Kansas St. – 6’4” 250Sinnott is a weapon as a receiver, and he can threaten all three levels of the defense and his skill as a route runner makes him a difficult cover. While he is not a devasting blocker he should not be considered deficient in this area either. He has played both H back and inline TE, so he can do many things for an offense. Another good value for the selection for the Bengals who continue to build upon the offense that they already have.
RD. 5 – 149th Overall:
Isaiah Adams – OL – Illinois – 6’4” 315
In the next couple of seasons, the Bengals are going to have big decisions to make on the offensive line with Karras a FA after ’24 and both Cappa and Volson being FAs after ’25. In Adams the Bengals grab a guy who I believe could be one of the best guards to come out of this draft. Unfortunately, he is often judged by his play as an OT. If you want to see the real talent of Adams watch the ’22 film with him playing at LG. The ’22 film shows a talented interior line player who both can anchor in pass protection and displace defenders in the running game. In the running game Adams displays the nasty disposition you want to see in a block finisher, which this line is lacking to a degree.
RD. 6 – 194th Overall:
Khristian Boyd – DT – N. Iowa – 6’2” 329
I was shocked to see this young man still on the boards, but it turns out to be a real benefit or the Bengals. Boyd is an FCS riser that showed up at the Shrine Bowl and dominated the FBS linemen that he faced. He was virtually unstoppable in practices and had a strong showing in the game displaying that the jump in talent level was not too big for him. I think the Bengals are going to look to change their approach to the NT position, but I believe that Domenique Davis and Boyd will make for a very solid pair of run stoppers and possibly beyond if they recognize their full potential. Boyd is an extremely strong prospect that played the true nose in the 3-4 of N. Iowa and who has shown the ability to anchor against double teams and consistently defeat them. He has also displayed the ability to pressure the QB.
RD. 6 – 214th Overall:
Hunter Nourzad – C – Penn State – 6’3” 317
As previously stated, the Bengals have some offensive line decisions coming up and one of the most pressing is at center. Karras is a free agent after this season and will be 32 going prior to the ’25 season. There are many that feel like Nourzad has early starting ability and he played in an extremely physical conference and did it at a very high level. I feel that in Hunter they have a better center prospect to potentially replace Karras by far than anything that they have on their roster currently. Hunter has also played OG so provides them some versatility off the bench in ’24.
RD. 7 – 224th Overall:
Rasheen Ali – RB – Marshall – 5’11” 206
Ali does not dance around, rather is a one-cut runner that looks for the hole and then hits it. He displayed a very consistent running style at Marshall despite having subpar blocking in front of him much of the time. He seems to display good vision and does not hesitate when he sees his opening. A good receiver out of the backfield but probably most importantly for a rookie back he is a very solid pass protector. Ali has definitely been productive at Marshall having recorded over 1,100 yards twice and generating over 40 TDs.
RD. 7 – 237th Overall:
Tory Taylor – P – Iowa – 6’4” 223
It seems clear that the Brad Robbins experiment did not yield the results that were expected. Yes, he was only a rookie, but he was also statistically the worst punter in the league. Taylor has a huge leg and has placed over 160 punts inside the 20. A competition is at least in order as punting can be a critical factor in winning a game. Low risk and high reward proposition at this point in the draft for an area of critical need.
Simulation 1:
RD. 1 – 18th Overall:
Quinyon Mitchell – CB – Toledo – 6’0” 195
With this selection Brock Bowers and Byron Murphy were both still on the board. However, when looking at BPA in accordance with greatest need I felt as if Mitchell by far fit the best. The Bengals are dangerously thin at CB in a passing league. They have CTB and Turner on the outside and Hilton in the slot. Outside of that they have Ivey, whose availability to start the season is in question, to go with Allan George and Jalen Davis. An injury to any of the top 3 could be detrimental. Another question could be is Turner more suited to be outside or in the slot as the heir apparent to Hilton?
In Mitchell you get a corner that checks every single box for a standout NFL corner, and he tops it with elite speed. Some may point to him playing in the MAC but he put on a clinic at the Senior Bowl matching up with all of the top receivers there. I would not be shocked at all to see Mitchell displace Turner on opening day as a boundary starter across from Taylor-Britt. He is a physical corner that is well built and plays with good technique.
Mitchell is a real value selection for the Bengals at #18 and helps to solidify the CB position for them after the loss of Awuzie.
RD. 2 – 49th Overall:
Braden Fiske – DT – Fla. State – 6’4” 292
Fiske does not sport great length and size but what he does have is elite explosiveness, work ethic, and a motor that never shuts down. The slightest delay by a lineman will severely cost them against Fiske. Fiske has very active hands that generate pretty good pop and that paired with his explosiveness can create real problems for offensive linemen. I do have concerns about his length, but he seems to have learned how to play within his stature and make it work for him. Should make for an explosive combination with Rankins, especially on passing downs.
RD. 3 – 80th Overall:
Blake Fisher – OT – Notre Dame – 6’6” 310
With the FA signing of Trent Brown the Bengals positioned themselves with not having to take an OT in the first round. However, they lucked out and grabbed a fringe first round talent in the third round. There is an argument to be made that in many other drafts Blake Fisher is a first round selection all day long. One NFL personnel executive went as far as to state that Fisher comes with more natural talent than Alt but the outstanding technique of Alt puts him ahead of Fisher. Fisher has a season to hone technique and become more consistent while learning from two of the top OTs in the game right now.
RD. 3 – 97th Overall:
Javon Baker – WR – UCF – 6’1” 202
Baker is just a complete receiver that is mature in his ability and technique and who has a legit opportunity to see early playing time and to be impactful in doing so. He plays a brand of football that translates extremely well to the transition to the pro game. While he may not be elite in any one area, he is good and solid in all of them. Baker understands how to play the WR position and is QB friendly. This is a great grab for the Bengals in overall value and he should immediately help to fill the gap the Bengals may feel from losing Boyd to free agency. A solid weapon for Burrow to exploit.
RD. 4 – 115th Overall:
Ben Sinnott – TE – Kansas St. – 6’4” 250Sinnott is a weapon as a receiver, and he can threaten all three levels of the defense and his skill as a route runner makes him a difficult cover. While he is not a devasting blocker he should not be considered deficient in this area either. He has played both H back and inline TE, so he can do many things for an offense. Another good value for the selection for the Bengals who continue to build upon the offense that they already have.
RD. 5 – 149th Overall:
Isaiah Adams – OL – Illinois – 6’4” 315
In the next couple of seasons, the Bengals are going to have big decisions to make on the offensive line with Karras a FA after ’24 and both Cappa and Volson being FAs after ’25. In Adams the Bengals grab a guy who I believe could be one of the best guards to come out of this draft. Unfortunately, he is often judged by his play as an OT. If you want to see the real talent of Adams watch the ’22 film with him playing at LG. The ’22 film shows a talented interior line player who both can anchor in pass protection and displace defenders in the running game. In the running game Adams displays the nasty disposition you want to see in a block finisher, which this line is lacking to a degree.
RD. 6 – 194th Overall:
Khristian Boyd – DT – N. Iowa – 6’2” 329
I was shocked to see this young man still on the boards, but it turns out to be a real benefit or the Bengals. Boyd is an FCS riser that showed up at the Shrine Bowl and dominated the FBS linemen that he faced. He was virtually unstoppable in practices and had a strong showing in the game displaying that the jump in talent level was not too big for him. I think the Bengals are going to look to change their approach to the NT position, but I believe that Domenique Davis and Boyd will make for a very solid pair of run stoppers and possibly beyond if they recognize their full potential. Boyd is an extremely strong prospect that played the true nose in the 3-4 of N. Iowa and who has shown the ability to anchor against double teams and consistently defeat them. He has also displayed the ability to pressure the QB.
RD. 6 – 214th Overall:
Hunter Nourzad – C – Penn State – 6’3” 317
As previously stated, the Bengals have some offensive line decisions coming up and one of the most pressing is at center. Karras is a free agent after this season and will be 32 going prior to the ’25 season. There are many that feel like Nourzad has early starting ability and he played in an extremely physical conference and did it at a very high level. I feel that in Hunter they have a better center prospect to potentially replace Karras by far than anything that they have on their roster currently. Hunter has also played OG so provides them some versatility off the bench in ’24.
RD. 7 – 224th Overall:
Rasheen Ali – RB – Marshall – 5’11” 206
Ali does not dance around, rather is a one-cut runner that looks for the hole and then hits it. He displayed a very consistent running style at Marshall despite having subpar blocking in front of him much of the time. He seems to display good vision and does not hesitate when he sees his opening. A good receiver out of the backfield but probably most importantly for a rookie back he is a very solid pass protector. Ali has definitely been productive at Marshall having recorded over 1,100 yards twice and generating over 40 TDs.
RD. 7 – 237th Overall:
Tory Taylor – P – Iowa – 6’4” 223
It seems clear that the Brad Robbins experiment did not yield the results that were expected. Yes, he was only a rookie, but he was also statistically the worst punter in the league. Taylor has a huge leg and has placed over 160 punts inside the 20. A competition is at least in order as punting can be a critical factor in winning a game. Low risk and high reward proposition at this point in the draft for an area of critical need.
