04-16-2024, 05:54 PM
(04-16-2024, 05:35 PM)CJD Wrote: Whenever I run a simulator and Bowers is there, I just reset it.
Like, I get it. There's a chance he's there.
But he's a singular player whose presence at 18 completely reshapes the entire draft in a way that does not really compare to any other mock draft.
With that said, if he were there at 18, I'd likely take him unless Fuaga is there. He'd do really well in our system with Burrow's precision.
I just think he's going to the Jets at 10. We'll just have to wait and see.
As for the rest of the draft, Fisher and Jackson are both a round earlier than I'm comfortable with their selections. I feel like a blue chip player at WR will be there at 49 and it'd be a real shame if we have to reach for Fisher simply because Bowers was there at 18. And Jackson, I just don't know if there's a NT worth a top 100 pick in this draft. This would be reaching for need. If Jackson isn't there in the 4th round, I don't know if there's a huge drop off between him and Boyd in the 5th.
I think the cliff in this draft is around the 100 pick mark, so I'd really like to utilize these first four picks to their fullest. Hell, I'd trade our 4th and a 6th for another crack in the top 100.
Johnny Wilson gives me anxiety. Lots of drops (16.1%), unusually high height and weight for a WR, meager contested catch rate (42.6%), and surprisingly limited production given what you'd think he'd excel at (6 TDs in 31 career games).
He does have a very intriguing athletic profile though, with an RAS of 9.88 and a surprisingly fast 40 time of 4.52 (Faster than his running mate, Keon Coleman, who ran a 4.64). But he's a very high risk pick. He could work out as a late 3d round pick, but I'd be curious who else was available there.
I have no problems with the rest of the picks.
Bortolini is a Wisconsin offensive lineman who passed the fated short shuttle bar of 4.47 (he did it in 4.28). He is one of my favorite late round IOL targets.
Guerendo, I feel like his 40 yard time has catapulted him from underrated all the way up to overrated haha. I wouldn't mind him in the 4th, but I bet they could get a better runner in that round. Jaylen Wright has been lasting into day 3 for me in some mock drafts. If my choice were Wright or Guerendo, I'm taking Wright every time.
I think Ainias Smith is a weapon that, for some reason, has not caught on in NFL circles. With the new kick off rules, I bet he could find a nice home as that Punt Returner who can come in on certain downs and torch the defense. With experience as a RB, WR and return man, he'd probably find a spot somewhere on this roster.
No opinion on the 6th and 7th rounders.
Overall, I'd be a bit disappointed with this draft haul. It feels like the majority of the players are drafted a round or 2 too early, with the exception of Bowers, who I think likely won't be there.
But I'm just some loser on the internet. I still appreciate all you do, Nate :)
Thank you CrazyJDawg. Definitely understand, happy this was my first Mock as I tend to agree with everything you say here except McKinnley
Jackson who I think is right about where I think he will go. I think I will start to reset the mock drafts if they keep showing Bowers there as I agree,
I don't find it likely that he is there and also think the Jets are the most likely team to grab him up at 10.
Slow processing from Blake Fisher is all I got from the criticism of this pick and I just don't see it when watching the film. Fisher is a big dude that
played RT at Notre Dame and more than held his own and he is a mauling O-lineman that can both pass and run block and he plays physical. Didn't
know about the drop rate of Johnny Wilson, yikes!
Jaylen Wright wasn't around in this mock so I still stand by my Guerendo pick whole heartedly. Completely agree on Ainias Smith, this guy is just a
playmaker and just what we need at Returner and as a backup WR if Chuck Sizzle doesn't stay healthy and perform.
Also really like Bortolini and besides getting Bowers and Jackson is probably my favorite pick in this Draft. I think Bortolini will be a very good IOL
in the NFL. Rock on, appreciate the insight and agree with a lot of what you say here CJD.
