Redrafting the 2024 draft - What other combinations?

[*ochocincos*]

(05-01-2024, 11:52 AM)CJD Wrote: So in this scenario, I guess you're under the impression that Brenden Rice fell for no real reason and he will be able to meaningfully contribute to this WR room? Because I see Burton to Rice as a major downgrade and All to Johnson as just a slight upgrade (not to mention the removal of McLaughlin).

I was listening to the Locked On Bengals podcast and Jake Liscow said something that fascinated me. 

He said that, based on collected data on where players go in the draft relative to the consensus board (a combination of multiple media draft boards like ESPN, NFL.com, independent draft people etc), players who are considered reaches on draft night relative to the consensus board (I think he was talking about the Jackson pick at the time) are statistically likely to end up being reaches in real life (the player does not live up to their draft position), but falling players relative to the consensus board ("Value picks" like Tampa and Rice here) are also statistically likely to end up not being the steal that the consensus boards would seem to indicate.

The reason for this is because the 32 teams have a lot more information than media outlets. They interview the players, they have better access to tape of the players, they can talk to the coaches of the players etc, so their boards are often different in some ways from the consensus boards.

So in order for a player to fall multiple rounds like Rice did, all 32 teams would have to essentially agree that that player should not go where the consensus board says they should go. All 32 teams passed on Rice through 6 rounds. That wasn't by mistake.

On the other side of the coin, consensus reaches often end up being reaches because all it takes is 1 team to disagree with the consensus board and take the player. If the Bengals had not taken Drew Sample in the 2nd round in 2019, maybe the other 31 teams would have agreed with his consensus ranking of 4th to 5th round. And, if they had, he likely would not have been reached for and he'd look like a draft success rather than an underwhelming 2nd round pick.

All this to say, I understand where your head is at, thinking you can get a 3rd round level player in the 7th round, so why would we take Burton, but the data says players who fall in the draft usually fall for a reason (there are, of course, exceptions, but not a ton).

We'll see what Rice ends up doing, but I would have jumped on him in the 4th round, personally.
Same with Christian Mahogany.
I do think Burton is better than Rice, but I wanted a better TE than All (or at least less injury worries), so I took Johnson in Burton's place.