Tee is now the only tagged player without a new deal

[Whatever]

(05-18-2024, 01:35 PM)CJD Wrote: Unironically, tier 1 players (those often considered worthy of a franchise tag) typically don't hit free agency. Or, if they do, their team concedes to their demands and pays them to stay. 

Top free agents of 2024 per PFF:
Chris Jones - Resigned
Kirk Cousins - Left his team
Josh Allen - Franchised and extended
Tee Higgins - Franchised, but not extended
Brian Burns - Franchised and traded
Justin Madubuike - Resigned
Christian Wilkins - Bizarrely not franchise tagged, and then left his team
Antoine Windfield - Franchised and extended
Jaylon Johnson - Resigned
L'Jarius Sneed - Franchised and traded
Michael Pittman Jr - Franchised and resigned
Danielle Hunter - left his team
Mike Evans - Resigned
Tyron Smith - Left his team
Kendall Fuller - Left his team
Leonard Williams - Resigned (after previously being traded)

Notably, the players among the top free agent targets that left their team in free agency were on the older side and their teams intended to move on from them (Cousins, Hunter, Smith, Fuller). Wilkins is the big outlier and I remember people considering it very strange that Miami did not franchise tag him. I think the reason was the team was unable to absorb the cap hit of a 1 year guaranteed contract and they just hoped Wilkins would stay on through free agency. Obviously, that gamble did not work.

In other words, the majority of the young, "cream of the crop" free agents this year either resigned with their teams or were franchised and traded.

After the first tier of free agents, you obviously have the next tier of free agents that did not warrant the franchise tag and trade approach like Bryce Huff, Patrick Queen, DJ Reader, etc, along with some players whose market was not what they expected and signed 1 year deals to test free agency again next year like Marquise Brown.

That's where a lot of team swapping occurs. But the top of the list is where you see team swaps less frequently.

There were a few more free agents who left their team for nothing in 2023:
Lamar Jackson - Resigned
Geno Smith - Resigned
Javon Hargrave - Left his team
Jessie Bates - Left his team
Jamel Dean - Resigned
Lavonte David - Resigned
Jakobi Meyers - Left his team
Orlando Brown Jr - Left his team
Daron Payne - Franchised and resigned
Derek Carr - Left his team
Mike McGlinchey - Left his team

The notable young players that left their teams were Jessie Bates and Orlando Brown Jr. Both contentious former franchise taggees. We benefitted from one, lost out due to the other. (Side note: Jakobi Meyers in the top 7 and Mike McGlinchey in the top 11 of that free agency class really tells you how weak some free agency classes can be due to teams retaining their stars).

And then 2022 was a very old free agent class, headed up by:
30 year old Terron Armstead - left his team 
33 year old Von Miller - left his team
32 year old Chandler Jones - left his team
26 year old JC Jackson  - left his team (an outlier who turned out to be a product of the New England system) 
26 year old Marcus Williams left his team (similar situation to Bates, Higgins, and Brown. Franchise tagged, contentiously not re-signed, hit free agency the following year)
31 year old Ryan Jensen - resigned
31 year old Bobby Wagner - left his team
29 year old Jadaveon Clowney - left his team and has been on 5 teams in the last 6 years
31 year old Stephon Gilmore - left his team
25 year old Carlton Davis - resigned
28 year old Allen Robinson - former team was not interested in resigning him, and the last two years are an indication of why
29 year old Randy Gregory - Very strange free agency where he originally resigned with his original team before he panicked about some language in the contract regarding fines and suspensions, and he bolted for the Broncos, where he played like shit for 2 years, and then was traded.

What I'm getting at is, yes, it is very hard for elite, young players to reach free agency without being traded or extended. There are exceptions, but in the last 2 years, 2 of ~5 exceptions (Higgins, Bates, Wilkins, Brown, with McGlinchey on the edge of what I'd consider a tier 1 free agent) have been at the expense of the Bengals.

And, as the 2022 free agent class indicated, there are often older (29+) players at the top of the list, with only a few young guys that make it there after contentious disputes with their former team like Marcus Williams.

So, to answer your questions:

More often then you seem to be implying


Not as often as you seem to be implying.

Maybe it is Madden.

Here's your problem.  Higgins isn't elite.  

Going through your list for this year, the first name aside from Higgins I hit that's never been an All Pro or Pro Bowler is Christian Wilkins ..who the fins let walk.  Sneed was Tagged and traded.  Pittman tagged and resigned(which we covered earlier).  Fuller walked.  

Sneed netted a 2025 3rd rounder, plus a swap of 7th's, a far cry from what people wanted for Tee.  So basically, 4th round value in this year's draft due to the depreciation of future picks.  Not exactly a franchise shaking deal.  

From a club perspective, I can see why you would want to keep Tee around one more year given that you're changing the  WR3, RB, and TE.  It's a "Win Now" move, but the club isn't "All In."