06-21-2024, 09:55 PM
(06-21-2024, 07:54 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: Apologies, this is a cap post, so it will be long.I think my clothes went out of style reading that..Lol Just kidding Ike
But the upshot is, I think we could keep Higgins at a pretty big number ($25 mil) if we are so inclined.
Always show your work.
1. 2025 Estimated Cap = $260 mil (OTC).
That is only +$5 mil from this year, and does not include any rollover. You know there will be rollover. We have, at eorst, $15.6 in space atm (counting 53 + 2 PUP recalls + $4+ mil for the PS). Yes, extensions for Chase or McPherson may take a bite once the signing bonuses get pro-rated.
But I still think we are gonna be looking at around $270 mil with the rollover + a slightly larger cap jump.
1. Signed starter level guys = 18 for $183,627,151. $86,372,849 in cap.
Offense (9): Burrow, Moss, Chase, WR2, WR3/TE2, D. Sample, O. Brown, Volson, Karras, Cappa, Mims.
Defense (8): Hendrickson, DT/NT, Rankins, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, CB3 (slot), SS, Stone.
Specials (1): PK, McNamara/Robbins, LS.
Yes, I am assuming Mims is the 2025 RT starter.
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2. Reserve Locks and/or Possible Starters = 11 for $18,538,044. $202,165,195 for 29 players. Cap space $67,834,805.
Browning, C. Brown, Burton, Iosivas, C. Jones, All, Murphy, Jenkins, M. Jackson, D. Hill, Battle.
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3. Inner Fringe/Reserves = 6 for $6,993,111. $209,158,306 for 35 players. $60,841,684 in cap.
McLachlan; Carter, Harper, Newton, Ivey, Anderson
These guys are signed thru 2025. Whether these particular guys make the team or somebody else does, their role, and most likely pay, is gonna be pretty similar. Rd 3-7 picks, vet min types, or Irwin types who make the leap from the PS.
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4. Outer Fringe/Reserves = 3 for $2,969,481. $212,127,787 for 38 players. $57,872,213 in cap space.
Lee, C. Johnson, Anthony.
Again, not sure these particular guys are still around, but some close approximation will be. Late round picks or UDFA's who make the team or young/vet min guys. The cap hit will be similar. These guys are currently signed.
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5. Practice squad cap hit = $4 mil estimate. $53,872,213 in space. 38 players.
This is a guess. Do we carry 16 every week? How many with more experience (up to 6 with 4+)?
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Reset. 15 open roster spots. Nearly $54 mil in space.
In terms of starting spots open/starters who are FAs, I count 8: RT: WR2 Higgins (Iosivas?, Burton?), RT T. Brown (Mims), TE/WR3 Gesicki (All?); DT BJ Hill (Jenkins/Jackson?), Slot CB Hilton (Turner or D. Hill?), SS Bell (Battle?); PK McPherson, LS Adomitis.
There are pretty plausible replacements for most guys already in the roster, save for the ST guys, so let's allocate roughly $4 mil to take care of McPherson ($3 mil) and Adomitis ($1 mil).
6. Specials locked up = 2 for $4 mil. $49,872,213 in space. 40 players. 13 spots.
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7. FA Analysis: where could we spend BIG to fill holes?
A) RT? Nope. I think Mims will be the starter by 2025, if not sooner. I could see a medium spend to retain Brown (Sample & ADG are both making good backup money) to be the swing OT, but no way we spend big on OT with OBJ & Mims locked in.
B) Slot WR/TE. Boyd spot (Gesicki/Burton). Nope.
IDK how we will treat this spot. All indicators are we will run some 12 (Gesicki, Hudson, All, McLachlan). Various WRs will be here at different times (Chase, Jones, Irwin, & Burton).
If spending big on Tee is questionable, no way we do it on the slot spot. I could see a medium spend to bring Gesicki back if things go well. But I think All was brought in to be the everydown 2 way TE once healthy. Sample as the backup. McLachan as future TE3/4.
Burton, Iosivas, Jones are all locked up for 2025. Irwin likely available for fairly cheap & dependable. I feel confident one or more of these guys can be an effective WR3. Though WR2 may be a reach.
C) DT/NT. BJ Hill.
Hopefully Jenkins & Jackson develop into at keast rotational run stopping DTs/NTs. Pass rush likely further away. Carter is also signed thru 2025.
I could see a big spend (or high pick used) at DT, easily. Maybe that is a Hill rerurn. Maybe a FA. Likely for pass rush, though if Jenkins/Jackson struggle, maybe a Reader replacement.
D) Slot corner. Hilton. Nope.
I could see a medium spend to bring Hilton back. Or a solid vet. Hill, Turner, Ivey, & Newton all have slot experience. As does Davis. Now, if Turner & Hill struggle outside, I could see a big spend/high pick on CB1, and moving them inside. But not a big CB3 spend.
E) SS. Bell. Nope.
We did not pay Bates. We have Battle. A medium spend for Bell again or a Stone type in FA, or a pick could happen if Battle struggles..
F) DE. Nope.
I guess if Murphy struggles we could spend on DE. Though with Hubbard & Hendrickson inked, I think that is unlikely yo be a BIG spend. A pick or medium vet more likely.
G) LG. Maybe.
If Volson struggles I could see a big FA spend on a G next year. Or at least a mid.
A lot will depend on some guys do this year, be it the FAs or their potential replacements or other guys on the roster (Ossai?). Where to spend & how much & on who?
But we have $54 mil and it seems WR2, DT, and CB1 are the only real logical places to spend big.
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8) Getting Real
Of course, that number is way high. We have 13 spots to fill and won't spend to the line.
Our top two picks this year make just over $4 mil. We should pick later next year, so assume we spend a touch less this year. A touch under $4 mil turns that $53.8 to $50 mil with 42 spots filled and 11 open. Assume they also plug at least 2 holes. Be it one we ID'd or not.
Assume we fill the 11 spots left with $1.2 mil vet min guys. 11x1.3 = $13,200,000. That would leave us with $36,800,000 to spend on those 11 spots beyond a min.
Worst case, we have WR2, WR3, RT, DT, CB, SS, LG, and DE needs of some sort approaching starter/rotation level. The draft takes 2. So 6.
If we pay Tee $25 mil next year, that leaves us $13 mil (displacement of $1.2) for overages on other spots + whatever cushion we want.
Things would need to go almost perfectly with Mims, Jenkins, Burton, All, Jackson, Newton, Murphy, Turner, D. Hill, and Battle for us to cut it that close. Or with T. Brown, Bell, Hilton, BJ Hill, and Gesicki coming back for cheap-ish. Possible but unlikely.
Note, that the same holds true with a big spend at another spot. It does not have to be Tee. Coukd be a DT, CB1, G, or DE.
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9) FFS, restructure Burrow.
Restructuring Burrow could net us over $20 mil in cap savings if done after 2024 (I cannot find the bloody link).
If I am not off my rocker on that, then we'd have $70 mil in space with 11 spots open.
Offense: 17
QB: Burrow, Browning
RB: Moss; C. Brown
WR: Chase; Burton, Iosivas, C. Jones
TE: All; D. Sample, McLachlan
OT: O. Brown, Mims
OG: Cappa, Volson
C: Karras, Lee
Defense: 20
DE: Hendrickson, Hubbard, Murphy, C. Johnson
DT/NT: Rankins; Jenkins, M. Jackson, Carter
LB: Wilson, Pratt; Harper
CB: CTB, Turner; D. Hill, Newton, Ivey
S: Battle, Stone; Anderson, Anthony
Specials: 3
PK: McPherson
P: McNamara/Robbins
LS: Adomitis
Lets go the most expensive route and fill most of the starting spots with FAs except for Mims. Assume the 1st & 2nd in 2025 are bench guys.
11 spots. $70 mil.
WR2: Higgins ($25 mil tag)
WR3: Gesicki ($7 mil)
OT3: T. Brown ($6 mil)
CB3: Hilton ($6 mil)
SS: Bell ($6 mil)
DT: Hill ($10 mil)
That's $60 milfor 6 spots. Assume we are not totally daft and take 2 of CB/DE/OG in this scenario
We still have $10 mil left for 5 spots. $6.2 mil at mins. $3.8 mil cushion with no starting help from the draft class and next to no one stepping up to claim a starting spot.
That is with paying Tee $25 mil again AND paying to retain ALL our FAs at starting spots & no guys coming through.
Realistically some will. Extend Tee to lower yearly hit AND have a couple guys come through (Burton, Iosivas, C. Jones, All, Volson, Murphy, Jenkins, Jackson, Turner, D. Hill, Battle) and we could spend big at 2 spots in the offseason. WR, CB, DT, DE, OG is where I'd look/draft first.
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Sorry for dissertation. Bottom line, with a Burrow restructure and some guys coming good, I think we can spend some in FA next year. Be it Tee or another spot. Likely 2.
