Reds July Game Thread 2024

[CJD]

(08-01-2024, 04:34 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: He's really starting to concern me. Couple month ago he looked like he was going to run away with the #1 starter job. And now he's getting knocked around all over the place.

What's up with him??

I will start by saying I'm not an expert on pitchers, so not all of this will be sourced by data, more on what I pick up by watching these players, but in my mind, there are two categories of pitchers:

1. Pitchers who can get you out by staying in the zone and just overpowering you.

2. Pitchers who rely on you chasing bad pitches to get you out.

I think Alexis Diaz's descent from shutdown closer to nightly heart attack causer is because he is a latter style of pitcher. He built his brand on getting guys to chase. But then, what happens when guys learn your pitching patterns and stop chasing your pitches?

A 5.9 walks per 9 rate (14.7% BB rate!)...

Diaz relied on getting guys to chase his deceptive pitches, but once they learned the tells or maybe just got more familiar with him, they stopped chasing as much, and he started having to put the ball in the strike zone more, which led to giving up more hits and more runs as well.

Now, hitters can literally just let Diaz pitch himself into a 3 ball count every at bat, and then tattoo the pitch that he now has to put in the zone.

I think a similar thing happened with Fernando Cruz. Remember early in the season, people were calling for him to be an all star with one of the best pitches in all of baseball (his splitter). Well...he hasn't been elite since April 29th, with bad numbers between April 29th and June 30th (4.88 ERA in 24 IP) and he's been an outright disaster since June 30th (9.00 ERA in 8 IP). They've basically stopped using him because they were no longer able to trust him in clutch situations.

And I think the reason is opponents stopped chasing that diving splitter as much, which made his strikeout rate drop and his walk rate skyrocket (5 BB and 21 K in 11.1 IP in April, 9 BB and 27K in 14.1 IP in May, 4 BB and 12K in 9.2 IP in June, before 6 BB and just 8K in 8 IP in July) for a season BB rate of 12.8%.

The reason I've remained bullish on Hunter Greene and why I support the selection of Chase Burns despite preferring Charlie Condon is they are both of the former variety. They have the fastball velocity to challenge hitters in the zone and, most of the time, come out victorious.

My fear is that Lodolo may be a pitcher of the latter type. His biggest highlights are when guys swing at that curveball that curves all the way into their back foot. It's a great highlight because it makes the hitters look stupid and makes you look like a genius pitcher.

But what happens when people stop swinging at that curve ball?

Apparently, a 6.67 ERA...