Burrow cleared for contact, expect preseason action.

[Bengalbug]

(08-02-2024, 10:39 AM)Sled21 Wrote: And someone explain to me what exactly is the benefit of that? Is that really going to make any difference in his performance? 
Look, they are going to do what they are going to do and none of us have any say in it. But if you are in the "Burrow needs to play pre-season" camp, just be prepared to live with it without complaining if he's lost for part of all the season due to an injury. I see no benefit when you look at risk/reward.

Where do we start from a risk reward? Burrow has played almost no preseason action, which is true. Let’s look at this.

Burrow career
52 games, 148 sacks, 37 picks, 57% win percentage. Averages 2.8 sacks per game, .71 picks per game.

Burrow first two weeks of season
8 games, 32 sacks, 9 picks, 12.5% win percentage. Averages of 4 sacks, 1.125 picks per game.

Burrow career, outside of first two weeks.
44 games, 116 sacks, 28 picks, 68% win percentage. Averages of 2.6 sacks per game and .64 picks.

Admittedly, burrow has faced adversity in various fashions to start each season, but the facts are the facts. Burrow is more likely to throw interceptions at a 75% higher rate, and take on 50% more sacks over the non first two weeks.

So, the risk of not playing our starters in some sort of meaningful reps is two fold. 1) a slow start (which matters) 2) more hits on burrow (which matters).

There is also the risk of injury in a preseason game. Trent green missed the season in 1999 (rams still won the Super Bowl), and Vick in 2003, broken leg missed first 11 weeks. But by and large that is an extremely small sample of injuries.

I know I only did the first two weeks, as that was time consuming enough, but this is about where the bengals start to dig themselves out of the hole.

In non first two week games, burrow is winning at a rate that is in elite category, top 12 all time. In the first two weeks, burrow is losing almost always.

Food for thought.