Reds August Game Thread 2024

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-07-2024, 02:20 PM)CJD Wrote: Elly is 91st percentile in fielding run value. He is 97th percentile in range/outs above average (10) and 91st percentile in arm strength. 

Relative to other players, he is 5th overall in the majors at shortstop in fielding run value and Outs above average.

The only shortstops who are better fielders than him this year are Bobby Witt Jr, Dansby Swanson, Anthony Volpe, and Francisco Lindor. 

He needs to cut down on errors, but the upside he provides FAR outweighs his occasional mistake.

I wouldn't mind seeing him at 3B because I think having an elite 3B/SS combo is generally better than an elite SS/2B combo, but it's close. Do you want to protect the middle of the infield or the far side of the infield? That's how I would decide where I would put McLain and Elly. But Elly is comfortably capable (and some may even call him elite) at either 3B or SS.

A lot of advanced metrics are interesting and/or useful. That said any advanced metric that tries to tell me that a person can be on pace for 30 errors and be an elite defender is one I am just simply going to be automatically extremely skeptical of. That's up there with the folks back in 2011 talking about how Homer Bailey's xFIP of 3.77 was better than Johnny Cueto's xFIP of 3.90... even though Bailey had an ERA of 4.43 and averaged 6.0 innings per start and Cueto had an ERA of 2.31 and averaged ~6.2 innings per start. (This year Cruz has a 2.89 xFIP, Lodolo has a 3.83 xFIP, and Greene has a 4.12 xFIP... oh and Ashcraft and Montas both have a better one than Abbott, so you can't just take any metrics as straight gospel on their own, lol.)

Looking at other defensive advanced metrics EDLC ranks among 42 SS with at least 200 innings this year...
-6 Defensive Runs Saved (38th)
-1.8 Double Play Runs Above Average (41st)
-0.9 Range Runs Above Average (34th)
-2.3 Error Runs Above Average (37th)
-4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating (41st)
-8.1 UZR/150 (34th)

If a guy is leading MLB in errors, is on pace for 30 of them, and 6 other metrics back it up, common sense seems to be to ignore the other 2 that are saying he's elite.