08-09-2024, 04:06 PM
It's all about risk management in my eyes. Winning a Super Bowl is hard. If the Bengals made an "all in" type trade, how much does it improve their chances? If you look at betting odds for the SB winner, the Chiefs lead at +500. This line carries an implied probability of 16%. So, the Chiefs have an estimated 16% chance of winning the Super Bowl as the "top dog". The Bengals are at +1600 which converts to 6%. Let's say they make a big trade and nab Surtain who would almost certainly cost at least a first round pick. How much does this help Cincinnati? Do their chances even crack 10% at that point? Is a 4% increase in probability worth giving up a first round pick and then some potentially? Not really. You play the long steady game making smart moves to improve your odds. There is actually some really simple math to demonstrate this.
Over the last two seasons, the Bengals pre-season odds for winning the Super Bowl average out to 7%. If Cincinnati stays this consistent for the next five seasons, they have roughly a 30% chance of winning at least one Super Bowl.
1-0.93^5 = 0.304
Making a big splash trade helps their chances immediately, but the needle isn't moved all that much. Would Cincinnati be able to afford the big contract or would they have to lose key players in order to do so? Would this just be a rental? What's the impact of losing the draft capital when you have a cap hungry QB? IMO making low/mid-tier trades if the opportunity presents itself is the much smarter move but I think this is an example of why big trades are so exceedingly rare in the NFL. It just isn't worth it.
Over the last two seasons, the Bengals pre-season odds for winning the Super Bowl average out to 7%. If Cincinnati stays this consistent for the next five seasons, they have roughly a 30% chance of winning at least one Super Bowl.
1-0.93^5 = 0.304
Making a big splash trade helps their chances immediately, but the needle isn't moved all that much. Would Cincinnati be able to afford the big contract or would they have to lose key players in order to do so? Would this just be a rental? What's the impact of losing the draft capital when you have a cap hungry QB? IMO making low/mid-tier trades if the opportunity presents itself is the much smarter move but I think this is an example of why big trades are so exceedingly rare in the NFL. It just isn't worth it.
