08-11-2024, 01:00 PM
(08-07-2024, 05:40 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Fair enough, so...
Green until he's 30 in 2029
Stephenson until he's 30 in 2027
India until he's 30 in 2027
Friedl until he's 33 in 2029
Strand until he's 30 in 2030
Steer until he's 31 in 2029
Fraley until he's 32 in 2027
Abbott until he's 31 in 2030
Lodolo until he's 30 in 2028
EDLC becomes a FA in 2030
There's just nobody we really need to sign right now other than possibly one guy who we won't/can't sign.
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As for 30 being old, largely yes.
Hitters are in real decline at 30, but if you start off good enough you have some leeway until you decline enough that you're bad. Guys like Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, were largely done being above-average hitters after 30. Guys like Joey Votto and Albert Pujols started off good enough that they could decline and still be good until they were 34 or so, and then they become a significantly lower caliber player. You might occasionally get a random year (Pujols' last year, Votto's 2021) but largely they're not the player they were anymore. Paul Goldschmidt is another who was a great hitter and after 34 fell straight down a cliff.
Hitters that aren't significantly above-average offensively generally aren't worth paying in their 30s. You'll see some hitters who are currently playing in their 30s who are good (Freeman seems to be holding strong at age 35 so we'll see next year), but that's largely a survivor bias because all the guys who trailed off aren't in the league anymore.
Felix Hernandez, Stephen Strasburg, and Johnny Cueto were all largely cooked after their age 30 season. Clayton Kershaw and Jacob DeGrom couldn't stay healthy after age 31. Madison Bumgardner after age 29. Corey Kluber, Cole Hamels, and David Price after age 32. There's many many more huge names of their time that just couldn't manage being very good in their mid-30s.
You'll find some occasional Adam Wainwrights, Zack Greinkes, Justin Verlanders, and Chris Sales, but that's remembering the outliers while forgetting the multitudes of their peers that vanished by the wayside long before.
You also have to weigh EDLC's skill set when considering his long-term viability. He's catching up with plate discipline, but his speed is what makes him unicorn special, without a doubt. He gets runs and bases that other players just can't. He turns a lot of outs into singles and doubles into triples. Opposing defenses get thrown off by the liability he creates after a usually innocuous walk.
How's that going to work when he's 30? I suppose the speed could linger a bit longer. Rickey Henderson was about 90 years old when he started to slow down, but he also had a more compact and muscular build. Elly is a lanky beanpole and that scares me when it comes to health.
I'm not saying he's not worth paying into his 30's. I am saying that he'll need to continue to improve a lot at the plate to justify the kind of money he's going to get no matter what we think. He's a Ferrari straight off of the showroom floor right now, and he's driving his speed like he stole it. I love watching it, but it seems like a young man's skill set more than a long term one.
