08-11-2024, 07:05 PM
(08-11-2024, 01:00 PM)samhain Wrote: You also have to weigh EDLC's skill set when considering his long-term viability. He's catching up with plate discipline, but his speed is what makes him unicorn special, without a doubt. He gets runs and bases that other players just can't. He turns a lot of outs into singles and doubles into triples. Opposing defenses get thrown off by the liability he creates after a usually innocuous walk.
How's that going to work when he's 30? I suppose the speed could linger a bit longer. Rickey Henderson was about 90 years old when he started to slow down, but he also had a more compact and muscular build. Elly is a lanky beanpole and that scares me when it comes to health.
I'm not saying he's not worth paying into his 30's. I am saying that he'll need to continue to improve a lot at the plate to justify the kind of money he's going to get no matter what we think. He's a Ferrari straight off of the showroom floor right now, and he's driving his speed like he stole it. I love watching it, but it seems like a young man's skill set more than a long term one.
He also needs to drop being a switch hitter. Being a switch hitter is only a benefit if you're actually good at it. If it's not a switch hitting problem and just a matchup problem, he'll always be held back by not being able to hit left handed pitching....
EDLC as a lefty hitter: .274/.348/.518 (866 OPS)
EDLC as a righty hitter: .199/.279/.314 (.594 OPS)
Not just the BA being a huge difference, but he also has no power as a righty/vs lefties with his .115 ISO being not far off Jose Peraza's .106 career number. Meanwhile his .215 ISO as a lefty vs righties is legit slugging power.
He's still young enough that he can still improve and get better and learn to hit lefty pitching, but he has to at least get to being a decent hitter against lefties if he wants to be a superstar. I can't think of a single hitter who everyone considered "elite" or a "star" that was sub-Mendoza against pitchers of either arm. You don't have to be equally dominant (Ohtani has a .985 OPS vs RHP and .829 vs LHP, Votto was .951 vs RHP and .852 vs LHP just as examples) but you have to at least be good. There's no such thing as a superstar that makes hundreds of millions of dollars, but needs to be in a platoon.
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