Reds August Game Thread 2024

[CJD]

(08-14-2024, 10:31 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Skenes might be fading a bit. 
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/pittsburgh-pirates-paul-skenes-continues-worrisome-trend-in-latest-loss/ar-AA1oBQC3

Greene is still 3rd/4th behind Sale and Wheeler, but potentially behind or ahead of Skenes (Reynaldo Lopez being on the IL helps as he still has a 2.06 ERA, but is going to fall behind further in IP). One of the big problems with WAR is everyone calculates it differently. On Fangraphs he's 4th at 3.7 instead of 5.3, which just keeps showing why I pay less and less attention to WAR unless it's to note that a guy has a negative one.


The odds makers currently have it... Sale, Wheeler, Skenes, Greene.

I'm curious how those WAR numbers can be so far apart haha. Oh well. Even if Greene doesn't win the Cy Young, this has been an outstanding breakout season and it seems like this is sustainable development. This article gives a good idea of what changed from 2023 to 2024. It has a lot to do with his splitter, which looks almost identical to his fastball out of his hand (same spin angle, per the article), and it seems to have the same arm angle and arm speed, based on this overlay, but is over 10 mph slower (97.6 mph vs 87 mph) and has almost 50 inches of vertical difference (16.6" induced rise on the fastball vs 31.7" drop for the splitter) between them. 

I imagine it is very difficult to distinguish between the two of them before it's too late.