Reds August Game Thread 2024

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(08-20-2024, 10:44 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: If/when he does get that 60th stolen base he’ll become only the 5th player in MLB history to have 20 HR’s and 60 SB’s in a season. And the first player to ever do it before the age of 23. Quite an accomplishment no matter what else happens.

20/60 is impressive regardless, but I don't love the whole "history" comparison. They completely and intentionally changed the whole running game to make stealing bases so much easier. Larger bases, can't block the bases, closer bases, limited disengagements, and a pitch clock all make stealing bases much easier.

It was a pretty stark line, of rules changing and stolen bases increasing, too. Not even gradual. The last two years there's been a ~50% increase in stolen bases per game league-wide, with pretty much the same amount of caught stealing per game.

Ronald Acuna Jr led 2019 in SB with 37 of them. Then in 2023, 4 years older and an ACL tear later he leads 2023 in SB with 73, becoming the first player in MLB history to go 30-60 and the first to go 40-60.

Hell, 30-year-old Jesse Winker has a chance at 20 SB this year (at 14) and in the 6 years prior to the rule changes he had 3 SB/3 CS in his career.

The top 3 SB of 2023 were 73, 67, and 54. There were 6 guys with 40+ SB, 18 with 30+ SB, and 51 with 20+ SB.
-Rule Changes-
The top 3 SB of 2022 were 41, 35, and 34. There was 1 guy with 40+ SB, 6 with 30+ SB, and 24 with 20+ SB.
The top 3 SB of 2021 were 47, 40, and 32. There were 2 guys with 40+ SB, 6 with 30+ SB, and 19 with 20+ SB.

I'm sure Billy Hamilton is sitting somewhere wishing he was born a decade later. It wouldn't have made him suddenly able to hit his way out of a wet paper bag, but he had 50+ steals in 4 straight seasons with the old rules. I feel like 80+ would have been a breeze for him, and he'd have made a lot more money because of it.

- - - - - - -

I feel like SB right now are going to just be what counting stats are going to be for the NFL with 17 and soon to be 18 games happening. We're going to get 2k WRs and 5k QBs pretty frequently, the sack record will almost certainly be broken with 2 extra games to do it in, and they're going to toss around "history" then too without context.