10-10-2024, 12:34 PM
(10-10-2024, 09:28 AM)jj22 Wrote: The other games NE, Balt, KC is where the clutch question comes into play. And why it's come back into discussion. It's the only thing anyone has discussed regarding Burrow this (and the last couple seasons since the SB loss) season. Not 4th quarter yards, not rather he's had good games or not this season. Everything else you are reading in this thread is spin at best, fake news at worst.
Unable to get in FG range or a TD to win it with multiple opportunities late in games, or even a first down to close out the game and get the win. That is what we are supposed to be discussing. It's changed now to how many yards a QB throws in the 4th quarter. Which is a weird stat given the records of the teams and much of those yards is due to garbage time stats, playing from behind, and the opposing teams D in prevent mode riding out the win.
I actually am not sure what the point of the stats were trying to show.
I think of Burrow in the same category of the current top QB's Mahomes, Allen, Lamar etc. That's who I compare him to. Not the Geno Smiths, an aged Stafford, certainly nonclutch Prescott, and Brock Purdy's of the league.
If anything I now know who the true Burrow haters are with who they consider him being amongst.
It depends on how you are trying to define "clutch". Out of curiosity, I queried data from 2021 --> 2024. This is a pretty narrow situation we are talking about so I want to make sure we have enough data. The situation I defined is as follows...
- 4th quarter or overtime
- Tied, or losing by at most 8 (one score game)
- Five minutes left or less
Next, you mention getting a first down to close out the game to get a win. I've narrowed down the situation to try to account for this. We are still looking at 4th quarter or later but have narrowed down the time remaining to two minutes or less. I have also changed the score situation to be tied or winning by at least one score. I'm classifying this as a "close out" situation. Finally, I am finding the amount of series that either get a first down or end in a touchdown. A series is different from a drive and represents a series of downs. 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down and then you get the first, the series of downs repeats. Since 2021, Burrow has had 15 series within this set of criteria and has been successful on 10 of them, or 67%. This is good for 5th in the league over that timeframe. Allen is 7th, Jackson is 10th and Mahomes is 17th.
Now, here is where Burrow gets tripped up. When it comes to actually winning those games, Burrow ranks 18th with a win percentage of 60%. Mahomes is tied for second, Allen at 7th, and Lamar Jackson is 20th. He's lost four games - Baltimore last week, Dallas week 2 of 2022, Pittsburgh week 1 of 2022 and Green Bay week 5 of 2021. Despite being one of the most effective QBs in the league at getting first downs or scores in this scenario, he has one of the worst win percentages. Here's a quick summary of the losses...
- Dallas - Tie game, offense goes three and out. A 63 yard punt returned for 14 yards and then a 33 yard drive to kick a game winning field goal.
- Pittsburgh - Offenses secures a first down but Burrow ends up getting sacked and fumbling (recovered by Cincinnati) to push Cincinnati out of FG range. Steelers drive 45 yards for the game winning field goal.
- Green Bay - Burrow leads a 35 yard drive to get into field goal range. McPherson misses the field goal. They go into overtime. On the first play in OT, Burrow throws an interception. This is followed up by a Green Bay missed FG. Finally, Burrow leads a 40 yard drive to get into FG range again. Evan McPherson misses the field goal. Green Bay goes 36 yards to kick the game winner.
- Baltimore - Burrow is sacked on the first play from scrimmage in his 4th quarter drive. They go three and out and punt. Burrow doesn't get much of an opportunity in overtime. Cincinnati recovers a fumble, ultimately run the ball three times and miss a FG.
