I know a couple posters will be really upset to see this...

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-10-2024, 12:34 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: It depends on how you are trying to define "clutch". Out of curiosity, I queried data from 2021 --> 2024. This is a pretty narrow situation we are talking about so I want to make sure we have enough data. The situation I defined is as follows...

1. 4th quarter or overtime
2. Tied, or losing by at most 8 (one score game)
3. Five minutes left or less
   

The library that I am using has a field called "drive_ended_with_a_score". By using this, we can figure out what percentage of drives within our set situation have ended in a score. Since 2021, Burrow has had 20 opportunities in such situations. Of these 20, he has led the offense to a score in 11 of them (55%). This is good for 10th best scoring percentage out of 48 quarterbacks. Josh Allen ranks 7th with 61%. Lamar ranks 25th with 43% and Mahomes ranks 39th with 30%. It's funny that you mention Dak Prescott being non-clutch as he leads the entire league in this category, leading the offense to a score on 74% of his opportunities with Tom Brady close behind (71%). 

Next, you mention getting a first down to close out the game to get a win. I've narrowed down the situation to try to account for this. We are still looking at 4th quarter or later but have narrowed down the time remaining to two minutes or less. I have also changed the score situation to be tied or winning by at least one score. I'm classifying this as a "close out" situation. Finally, I am finding the amount of series that either get a first down or end in a touchdown. A series is different from a drive and represents a series of downs. 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down and then you get the first, the series of downs repeats. Since 2021, Burrow has had 15 series within this set of criteria and has been successful on 10 of them, or 67%. This is good for 5th in the league over that timeframe. Allen is 7th, Jackson is 10th and Mahomes is 17th. 

Now, here is where Burrow gets tripped up. When it comes to actually winning those games, Burrow ranks 18th with a win percentage of 60%. Mahomes is tied for second, Allen at 7th, and Lamar Jackson is 20th. He's lost four games - Baltimore last week, Dallas week 2 of 2022, Pittsburgh week 1 of 2022 and Green Bay week 5 of 2021. Despite being one of the most effective QBs in the league at getting first downs or scores in this scenario, he has one of the worst win percentages. Here's a quick summary of the losses...

1. Dallas - Tie game, offense goes three and out. A 63 yard punt returned for 14 yards and then a 33 yard drive to kick a game winning field goal. 
2. Pittsburgh - Offenses secures a first down but Burrow ends up getting sacked and fumbling (recovered by Cincinnati) to push Cincinnati out of FG range. Steelers drive 45 yards for the game winning field goal.
3. Green Bay - Burrow leads a 35 yard drive to get into field goal range. McPherson misses the field goal. They go into overtime. On the first play in OT, Burrow throws an interception. This is followed up by a Green Bay missed FG. Finally, Burrow leads a 40 yard drive to get into FG range again. Evan McPherson misses the field goal. Green Bay goes 36 yards to kick the game winner.
4. Baltimore - Burrow is sacked on the first play from scrimmage in his 4th quarter drive. They go three and out and punt. Burrow doesn't get much of an opportunity in overtime. Cincinnati recovers a fumble, ultimately run the ball three times and miss a FG. 
   

So, to summarize, Burrow is one of the most effective QBs in the league in late game situations but his win percentage has suffered due to poor luck on field goals. 

Good stuff. It would be nice to correlate how that computes with this.



There are a lot of factors that go into play at the end of a game. I just get annoyed when anyone either tries to take one set of data and use that as the measuring stick, or they make up about 50 "excuses" why it didn't happen. There are reasons and there are excuses for everything, it's just a matter of fleshing it all out. 

EDIT: AH, i just paid closer attention to the end of your post. Good stuff, my man.